NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	111		Excitement	7.8 [307]		MVP	Derrick White (BOS): +33.8%
Boston Celtics	119		Comeback	2.6 [789]		LVP	Al Horford (BOS): -15.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.04	0.01	7	93%	0.17	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	-0.00	7	64%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dru Smith	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.01	6	75%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09	0.10	0.00	0.02	20	65%	0.18	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.03
Kevin Love	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	56%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	11	45%	0.05	1	-0.03	9	89%	0.03
Bam Adebayo	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	23	49%	0.05	3	-0.09	9	78%	0.02
Jamal Cain	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Bryant	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.18,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.34	0.34	0.19	0.16	0.01	15	78%	0.40	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	12	61%	0.14	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Jaylen Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.09	0.02	22	56%	0.21	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	13	61%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	22	47%	0.09	2	-0.07	3	33%	-0.02
Oshae Brissett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.16	-0.03	-0.03	6	0%	-0.10	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.1	2.7	26.7	15.4	25.4	3.4	35.6	139.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +39.0%

MIA -8.0%

BOS +25.2%

MIA -3.4%

MIA -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	15.1	13.6	14.5	111.0	117.8	113.9
season	14.9	14.9		112.3	120.7
opponent	14.7	14.8		109.6	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.7	16.0	14.8	14.8	15.1
BOS	13.0	11.7	15.2	14.6	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	42	45	0.26	-0.76	1.02	-0.12	13	-21	34	14.4	15.6	-1.19	14.1	13.2	0.93
Jamal Cain	10	9	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-3	-2	15.2	15.1	0.14	9.9	14.0	-4.07
Kyle Lowry	69	69	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-7	6	15.2	14.7	0.48	13.0	15.0	-2.01
Bam Adebayo	73	76	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-8	8	15.1	15.0	0.15	13.0	15.3	-2.24
Jimmy Butler	71	73	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.20	0	-8	8	15.2	14.7	0.54	13.2	14.7	-1.50
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	29	28	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.07	-8	0	-8	14.7	15.2	-0.54	14.7	13.2	1.50
Thomas Bryant	27	25	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.09	-8	0	-8	15.0	15.1	-0.15	15.3	13.0	2.24
Tyler Herro	84	87	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.39	-1	-7	6	14.5	18.2	-3.79	13.6	13.9	-0.31
Duncan Robinson	50	47	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.17	-12	4	-16	15.9	14.3	1.58	14.3	13.0	1.36
Dru Smith	45	46	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.03	-18	10	-28	15.7	14.5	1.17	14.1	13.2	0.95

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jayson Tatum	85	86	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.31	13	-5	18	13.6	13.4	0.26	15.3	13.4	1.99
Derrick White	78	76	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.34	4	4	0	13.5	13.9	-0.41	15.1	15.0	0.09
Jaylen Brown	74	72	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	5	-2	12.8	15.7	-2.88	15.0	15.3	-0.30
Payton Pritchard	25	27	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.07	8	0	8	15.3	13.0	2.24	15.0	15.1	-0.15
Jrue Holiday	79	77	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	4	0	13.2	15.0	-1.86	14.8	15.9	-1.09
Al Horford	50	48	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.08	7	1	6	14.5	12.7	1.75	15.3	14.9	0.43
Sam Hauser	21	21	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.01	6	2	4	14.3	13.4	0.87	15.4	15.0	0.45
Oshae Brissett	28	28	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.17	7	1	6	14.2	13.3	0.91	15.7	14.8	0.89
Kristaps Porzingis	65	65	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.29	-12	20	-32	13.2	14.3	-1.15	14.6	16.0	-1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.28,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.57,0.67,0.73,0.62,0.8,0.82,0.93,0.9,0.98,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 128, WAS 135	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.68,0.63,0.76,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.97,0.91,1	93.5%
CLE 76, IND 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.66,0.57,0.68,0.79,0.81,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.0%
PHI 93, WAS 109	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.5,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.37,0.45,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.76,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1	92.6%