NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	8.3 [226]		MVP	Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM): +19.7%
Memphis Grizzlies	104		Comeback	1.6 [744]		LVP	Xavier Tillman (MEM): -15.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.04	-0.01	13	62%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	17	58%	0.18	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Zeke Nnaji	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	4	70%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Peyton Watson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	90%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Porter Jr.	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	60%	0.08	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.09,-0.08,-0.17,-0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03	-0.06	0.07	-0.02	14	65%	0.34	9	-0.31	6	83%	0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	10	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	11	43%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Julian Strawther	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	36%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson Jr.	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.2	0.20	0.16	0.04	0.00	13	75%	0.20	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Smart	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.01	-0.00	13	69%	0.19	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	14	53%	0.17	3	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
John Konchar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Bane	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.09	0.07	-0.01	17	37%	0.04	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Jake LaRavia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.00	3	75%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Ziaire Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	10	44%	0.02	4	-0.11	5	100%	0.05
David Roddy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Xavier Tillman	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.05	-0.11	-0.00	9	59%	0.08	5	-0.23	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.8	32.3	14.5	28.3	0.2	36.4	138.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +39.2%

MEM -13.3%

DEN +10.8%

DEN +9.1%

DEN +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	14.7	13.1	14.5	103.8	101.0	113.9
season	15.0	14.8		116.2	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.6		113.2	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.5	13.2	14.0	17.8	14.7
MEM	12.2	12.0	13.7	14.9	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	77	76	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.33	6	-2	8	14.4	15.6	-1.13	12.8	13.9	-1.12
Nikola Jokic	77	76	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.33	6	-2	8	14.4	15.6	-1.13	12.8	13.9	-1.12
Aaron Gordon	68	65	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.27	8	-4	12	14.4	15.4	-1.06	13.3	12.7	0.61
Jamal Murray	72	72	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.21	8	-4	12	15.1	13.8	1.27	13.3	12.6	0.65
Michael Porter Jr.	63	62	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.25	4	0	4	15.1	14.2	0.91	12.7	13.7	-1.01
Christian Braun	39	39	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.13	0	4	-4	14.8	14.6	0.20	13.8	12.7	1.12
Reggie Jackson	47	46	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.19	-4	8	-12	14.4	15.0	-0.54	13.6	12.7	0.96
Peyton Watson	38	40	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	8	-12	14.7	14.8	-0.10	12.7	13.4	-0.69
Zeke Nnaji	27	27	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	6	-8	15.6	14.4	1.13	13.9	12.8	1.12
Julian Strawther	12	12	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	6	-8	15.4	14.6	0.79	11.7	13.3	-1.52

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jake LaRavia	36	35	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.09	6	-10	16	12.3	13.5	-1.22	14.5	14.9	-0.40
John Konchar	66	65	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.21	3	-7	10	13.1	13.1	-0.02	14.8	14.5	0.29
Derrick Rose	49	45	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-3	2	13.0	13.2	-0.15	14.7	14.7	-0.06
Ziaire Williams	65	68	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.25	0	-4	4	13.2	13.0	0.15	14.9	14.4	0.47
David Roddy	34	35	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.04	-8	4	-12	13.2	13.0	0.16	13.4	15.4	-1.99
Jaren Jackson Jr.	62	64	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-3	2	12.3	14.3	-1.95	14.4	15.2	-0.74
Xavier Tillman	70	71	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.28	-5	1	-6	13.9	11.4	2.55	15.3	13.6	1.68
Marcus Smart	66	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.26	-6	2	-8	13.2	12.9	0.28	14.6	15.1	-0.51
Desmond Bane	67	68	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.34	-8	4	-12	13.2	12.8	0.41	15.2	13.9	1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.17,0.34,0.47,0.62,0.15,0.06,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 118, SAS 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.27,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.21,0.24,0.09,0	92.2%
CHI 93, POR 88	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.31,0.36,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.1,0.19,0.22,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.35,0.33,0.45,0.21,0.14,0.16,0	91.9%
DEN 115, GSW 112	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.29,0.17,0.12,0.26,0.4,0.4,0.26,0.29,0.02,0,0	91.8%