NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	93		Excitement	8.3 [228]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): +28.1%
Portland Trail Blazers	88		Comeback	1.0 [836]		LVP	Damian Lillard (POR): -43.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.28	0.09	0.20	0.01	13	65%	0.33	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.14
Taj Gibson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	7	62%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.01,0.08,0.03	-0.04	0.04	-0.03	15	37%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Kirk Hinrich	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	4	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Doug McDermott	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.06	-0.01	8	65%	0.04	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.06
Tony Snell	-0.06	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	6	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	20	40%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	17	50%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Noah Vonleh	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.05	0.05	-0.01	13	39%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	8	60%	0.07	4	-0.08	4	50%	-0.04
Allen Crabbe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.05	0.01	5	75%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	5	42%	-0.02	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	9	25%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.14,-0.28,-0.32,-0.43	-0.43	-0.13	-0.30	-0.00	22	33%	-0.27	2	-0.16	13	85%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.0	28.8	14.6	26.8	1.8	44.2	142.3
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +26.5%

CHI +19.6%

CHI +2.0%

CHI +7.6%

POR -5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	POR	NBA	CHI	POR	NBA
this game	14.6	14.2	14.9	93.9	87.1	105.1
season	14.8	15.0		103.7	107.1
opponent	14.6	14.9		106.7	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.1	13.7	14.7	14.7	14.6
POR	15.5	15.6	14.1	12.0	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Rose	72	75	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.27	11	-6	17	14.3	15.3	-1.00	14.1	14.7	-0.66
Jimmy Butler	73	73	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.28	8	-3	11	15.1	13.2	1.86	14.2	14.3	-0.07
Nikola Mirotic	59	56	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.30	3	2	1	16.2	12.1	4.10	14.6	13.8	0.79
Kirk Hinrich	54	57	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.40	-2	7	-9	14.4	14.8	-0.39	12.7	16.2	-3.49
Pau Gasol	57	55	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.25	0	5	-5	15.7	13.0	2.64	15.1	13.2	1.87
Joakim Noah	43	48	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	0	5	13.0	15.7	-2.69	13.5	14.9	-1.33
Doug McDermott	55	56	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.00	4	1	3	13.7	15.6	-1.85	14.8	13.6	1.19
Tony Snell	26	27	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	3	-1	15.1	14.4	0.69	15.4	13.8	1.55
Taj Gibson	38	42	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.06	-1	6	-7	12.4	15.9	-3.57	13.8	14.6	-0.77
E'Twaun Moore	18	16	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.09	-5	10	-15	15.3	14.4	0.87	15.9	13.9	1.95

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mason Plumlee	73	72	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.27	6	-11	17	14.3	14.0	0.38	15.1	13.3	1.80
Noah Vonleh	23	24	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-1	-3	16.8	13.5	3.35	15.4	14.3	1.12
Al-Farouq Aminu	43	44	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-2	-1	15.7	13.2	2.46	14.9	14.3	0.62
CJ McCollum	73	75	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.29	2	-7	9	14.2	14.3	-0.12	14.7	14.1	0.64
Gerald Henderson	37	35	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.02	-8	3	-11	14.5	14.1	0.44	13.4	15.2	-1.85
Ed Davis	76	74	-0.28	-0.23	-0.05	-0.36	3	-8	11	13.9	15.2	-1.23	14.6	14.5	0.11
Maurice Harkless	29	26	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	7	-19	13.2	14.7	-1.45	12.9	15.2	-2.28
Damian Lillard	83	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.29	-3	-2	-1	14.0	15.5	-1.54	15.0	12.8	2.15
Allen Crabbe	68	66	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.41	-6	1	-7	13.4	16.1	-2.71	14.1	15.6	-1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.31,0.36,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.1,0.19,0.22,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.35,0.33,0.45,0.21,0.14,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 103, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.04,0.08,0.21,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.1,0.02,0	92.1%
SAS 94, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.2,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.11,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.32,0.13,0.09,0.02,0	92.1%
WAS 95, POR 91	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.24,0.34,0.23,0.07,0.07,0.08,0	92.0%