NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	115		Excitement	7.9 [272]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +23.7%
Golden State Warriors	112		Comeback	1.1 [584]		LVP	Baron Davis (GSW): -14.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.24	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.24	0.12	0.13	0.01	18	72%	0.36	5	-0.12	10	90%	0.05
Marcus Camby	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	9	58%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.05
Eduardo Najera	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	58%	0.05	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.03
Linas Kleiza	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	11	50%	0.07	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Reggie Evans	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	56%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
DerMarr Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	0.01	13	52%	0.08	5	-0.13	7	43%	-0.02
Yakhouba Diawara	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.07	-0.02	6	64%	0.03	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Smith	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.05	-0.00	11	74%	0.15	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.00	0.01	14	60%	0.12	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.01	0.02	19	57%	0.09	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.04
Matt Barnes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	8	39%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Keith McLeod	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	7	60%	0.04	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Anthony Roberson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	14	35%	-0.08	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	16	51%	0.01	5	-0.15	9	78%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	1.7	29.8	15.0	30.0	2.4	39.3	144.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +29.2%

DEN +19.9%

DEN +29.7%

GSW -24.1%

GSW -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	13.8	13.4	15.4	108.5	105.7	104.5
season	14.0	13.5		105.8	105.7
opponent	15.2	15.3		105.7	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.6	14.1	14.9	13.6	13.8
GSW	14.1	12.0	13.4	14.1	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	77	78	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.33	12	-9	21	13.7	13.9	-0.17	13.7	12.7	0.98
J.R. Smith	73	76	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.47	6	-3	9	13.2	15.1	-1.96	14.2	11.2	3.02
Eduardo Najera	53	53	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.48	2	1	1	13.2	14.4	-1.21	14.0	12.8	1.17
Carmelo Anthony	86	87	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.34	6	-3	9	14.1	12.4	1.69	13.4	13.4	0.03
Andre Miller	87	89	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.33	1	2	-1	13.4	15.3	-1.88	13.9	10.8	3.06
Yakhouba Diawara	49	48	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.02	2	1	1	14.3	13.3	0.99	12.6	14.0	-1.41
DerMarr Johnson	37	35	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.09	-2	5	-7	13.8	13.8	0.02	12.2	14.0	-1.83
Linas Kleiza	9	8	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	7	-11	11.9	13.9	-2.06	13.7	13.4	0.38
Joe Smith	18	17	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	6	-9	15.3	13.5	1.88	11.2	13.8	-2.57
Reggie Evans	41	39	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.06	-5	8	-13	14.9	13.1	1.76	12.2	14.1	-1.88

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith McLeod	17	17	0.18	-0.68	0.87	-0.02	7	-10	17	13.9	13.3	0.58	12.1	14.1	-2.04
Matt Barnes	4	3	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-3	3	15.7	13.3	2.45	11.7	13.8	-2.17
Anthony Roberson	8	8	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-2	1	16.5	13.1	3.36	13.2	13.8	-0.57
Mickael Pietrus	49	51	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.27	7	-10	17	12.3	14.3	-2.03	13.5	14.1	-0.62
Mike Dunleavy	49	49	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.30	5	-8	13	12.3	14.4	-2.07	14.3	13.3	1.03
Adonal Foyle	21	19	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.08	-4	1	-5	12.4	13.6	-1.27	14.6	13.6	0.98
Andris Biedrins	64	67	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	2	-7	13.6	13.1	0.50	13.6	14.0	-0.36
Troy Murphy	74	73	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.29	-5	2	-7	14.3	11.2	3.07	13.0	15.5	-2.57
Baron Davis	71	71	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.20	-8	5	-13	13.7	12.8	0.89	15.0	11.3	3.76
Monta Ellis	92	91	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.40	-2	-1	-1	13.6	12.1	1.44	13.3	16.5	-3.14
Jason Richardson	81	81	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.37	-9	6	-15	13.0	14.7	-1.73	14.2	12.4	1.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.29,0.17,0.12,0.26,0.4,0.4,0.26,0.29,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 107, HOU 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.15,0.2,0.1,0.26,0.4,0.39,0.26,0.21,0.01,0.01,0	93.3%
TOR 97, MIL 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.22,0.27,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.28,0.26,0.35,0.4,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.02,0	92.9%
NJN 116, VAN 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.07,0.08,0.01,0,0	92.6%