NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	97		Excitement	7.4 [341]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): +9.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	90		Comeback	1.5 [630]		LVP	D.J. Augustin (TOR): -11.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09	-0.00	0.07	-0.03	14	44%	0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	0.03
DeMar DeRozan	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.06	-0.01	14	47%	0.16	2	-0.10	8	75%	-0.04
Amir Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.02	7	79%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	3	70%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Landry Fields	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	7	55%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Terrence Ross	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Rudy Gay	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	14	47%	0.06	5	-0.13	10	80%	-0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	8	39%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
D.J. Augustin	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	4	20%	-0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	0.00	13	57%	0.13	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	9	65%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	12	58%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	9	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	2	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.10
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	8	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	10	36%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Nate Wolters	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	8	39%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.0	29.0	17.4	29.7	2.5	33.5	137.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +8.9%

TOR +32.0%

TOR +21.5%

MIL -11.3%

MIL -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	15.0	14.4	15.1	99.0	91.8	105.2
season	15.9	15.7		107.2	101.4
opponent	15.1	15.1		109.7	104.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.0	12.3	16.7	16.2	15.0
MIL	15.6	15.4	13.9	12.6	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	69	70	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.21	17	-10	27	15.3	14.4	0.90	14.6	13.7	0.93
Amir Johnson	64	65	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.19	13	-6	19	15.5	14.0	1.55	14.4	14.4	-0.02
Kyle Lowry	68	69	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.19	11	-4	15	14.5	16.3	-1.81	15.0	12.9	2.15
Landry Fields	58	58	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.33	3	4	-1	15.5	14.3	1.20	13.7	15.4	-1.69
Rudy Gay	72	71	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.19	2	5	-3	14.9	15.4	-0.56	14.8	13.3	1.54
Terrence Ross	48	48	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.17	-3	10	-13	14.5	15.5	-0.96	13.6	15.1	-1.47
Tyler Hansbrough	34	34	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	7	-7	14.6	15.2	-0.60	14.0	14.6	-0.53
D.J. Augustin	30	29	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.11	-4	11	-15	16.3	14.5	1.81	12.9	15.0	-2.15
Jonas Valanciunas	36	35	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	8	-9	14.5	15.3	-0.81	14.2	14.5	-0.23
Aaron Gray	11	11	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	10	-13	13.6	15.2	-1.55	18.5	13.9	4.59

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Giannis Antetokounmpo	36	35	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.22	6	-13	19	13.4	14.9	-1.47	15.3	14.9	0.38
Larry Sanders	44	43	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-6	5	15.9	13.1	2.74	13.7	16.1	-2.38
Ersan Ilyasova	47	47	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-7	7	15.7	13.1	2.63	14.7	15.3	-0.59
Khris Middleton	40	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.15	-1	-6	5	13.4	15.1	-1.65	15.2	14.9	0.24
Gary Neal	55	55	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.08	-5	-2	-3	14.5	14.2	0.26	14.7	15.5	-0.81
Nate Wolters	73	72	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.22	-1	-6	5	14.8	13.3	1.47	15.2	14.4	0.80
Zaza Pachulia	29	30	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.05	-11	4	-15	13.7	14.7	-1.03	15.9	14.6	1.28
Caron Butler	49	51	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.14	-9	2	-11	15.3	13.5	1.82	15.0	15.0	-0.06
John Henson	51	51	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.23	-7	0	-7	13.1	15.7	-2.63	15.3	14.7	0.59
O.J. Mayo	66	67	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.30	-6	-1	-5	13.6	16.0	-2.36	15.3	14.3	1.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.22,0.27,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.28,0.26,0.35,0.4,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 78, HOU 70	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.28,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.19,0.25,0.29,0.37,0.26,0.22,0.39,0.31,0.15,0.02,0,0	93.4%
NOH 87, MIL 81	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.33,0.26,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.24,0.36,0.35,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.09,0.08,0	93.1%
DEN 115, GSW 112	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.29,0.17,0.12,0.26,0.4,0.4,0.26,0.29,0.02,0,0	92.9%