NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	129		Excitement	7.6 [341]		MVP	De'Aaron Fox (SAC): +42.4%
San Antonio Spurs	120		Comeback	3.6 [792]		LVP	Keegan Murray (SAC): -6.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
De'Aaron Fox	0.42	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.17,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.42	0.29	0.15	0.01	24	70%	0.45	1	-0.03	13	77%	0.00
Malik Monk	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.18	0.08	0.01	11	91%	0.28	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Domantas Sabonis	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.13	0.07	0.01	13	79%	0.32	4	-0.12	8	87%	0.07
Kevin Huerter	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	9	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.02	0.05	-0.03	7	41%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Sasha Vezenkov	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duarte	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Keon Ellis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keegan Murray	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	-0.04	10	30%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.20	0.03	-0.02	14	82%	0.37	3	-0.13	6	83%	0.01
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.04	0.01	16	62%	0.20	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Sandro Mamukelashvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	2	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	60%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Malaki Branham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	10	45%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Cedi Osman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Bassey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Victor Wembanyama	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	26	51%	0.11	4	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Blake Wesley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Champagnie	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	64%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.02
Jeremy Sochan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	-0.00	-0.06	11	33%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	3.5	30.4	15.6	32.5	3.7	31.1	140.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +26.7%

SAC +5.8%

SAC +5.9%

SAC +9.1%

SAC +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	SAS	NBA	SAC	SAS	NBA
this game	13.2	13.6	14.5	120.6	111.1	113.9
season	14.0	13.9		115.6	108.6
opponent	14.3	14.8		115.2	113.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	12.2	14.0	12.8	13.8	13.2
SAS	15.0	12.7	12.4	14.4	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keegan Murray	86	87	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.18	19	-10	29	13.1	13.5	-0.43	13.4	14.6	-1.19
Harrison Barnes	58	60	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.43	5	4	1	13.2	13.1	0.14	13.4	13.8	-0.40
Domantas Sabonis	76	79	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.24	6	3	3	12.9	13.8	-0.84	14.2	12.0	2.20
De'Aaron Fox	92	93	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	6	-3	13.2	12.7	0.52	13.3	15.5	-2.15
Kevin Huerter	56	58	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.42	-1	10	-11	13.8	12.5	1.24	13.3	14.0	-0.65
Malik Monk	56	55	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.20	13	-4	17	12.7	13.7	-0.93	14.5	12.7	1.87
Sasha Vezenkov	37	37	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.19	10	-1	11	12.1	13.7	-1.63	14.9	12.9	2.03
Keon Ellis	21	21	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.03	-1	10	-11	13.2	13.2	0.02	14.0	13.5	0.42
JaVale McGee	19	17	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.04	-1	10	-11	14.2	13.0	1.26	12.4	13.8	-1.49
Chris Duarte	34	33	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.04	-8	17	-25	14.0	12.8	1.16	11.9	14.4	-2.45

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sandro Mamukelashvili	27	28	0.63	-1.13	1.76	0.01	21	-30	51	11.6	14.3	-2.74	14.7	12.6	2.08
Doug McDermott	36	38	0.39	-0.89	1.29	-0.07	16	-25	41	11.6	14.6	-3.00	14.3	12.6	1.72
Zach Collins	76	75	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.46	19	-28	47	13.4	14.0	-0.55	13.6	12.3	1.28
Charles Bassey	6	5	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.09	-6	-3	-3	17.7	13.4	4.29	8.6	13.4	-4.80
Cedi Osman	32	31	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.10	-7	-2	-5	15.7	12.7	2.95	12.4	13.5	-1.16
Blake Wesley	9	9	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.08	-15	6	-21	11.8	13.8	-2.00	11.9	13.3	-1.41
Julian Champagnie	58	56	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.21	-9	0	-9	14.8	12.2	2.59	12.9	13.5	-0.52
Jeremy Sochan	83	81	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.39	-3	-6	3	13.8	13.0	0.74	13.5	12.2	1.35
Malaki Branham	63	62	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.03	-18	9	-27	14.0	13.0	0.97	12.5	14.2	-1.69
Keldon Johnson	80	81	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.22	-12	3	-15	13.1	15.0	-1.87	13.2	13.1	0.08
Victor Wembanyama	70	69	-1.04	0.54	-1.58	-0.13	-31	22	-53	13.5	13.7	-0.19	12.8	13.8	-0.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.62,0.54,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.34,0.33,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.31,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.62,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.27,0.14,0.1,0.04,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 95, BOS 92	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.31,0.25,0.21,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.5,0.43,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.06,0.09,0	90.3%
TOR 104, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.37,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.31,0.29,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.25,0.39,0.26,0.11,0.06,0.11,0	89.2%
DET 81, MIL 76	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.69,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.07,0.08,0	89.2%