NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	95		Excitement	7.5 [325]		MVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): +14.2%
Boston Celtics	92		Comeback	2.3 [261]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -22.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glenn Robinson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	-0.01	16	61%	0.18	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.05
Michael Redd	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.01	9	50%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ervin Johnson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	3	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.01	4	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	18	62%	0.12	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.03
Tim Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.01	8	39%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Joel Przybilla	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	17	59%	0.11	5	-0.18	3	67%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.11	0.00	4	82%	0.18	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.03	-0.03	27	54%	0.15	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	10	50%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	6	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.11,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	9	50%	0.09	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	8	22%	-0.10	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	4	10%	-0.15	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0,0,0,0,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22	-0.22	0.01	-0.21	0.02	17	57%	-0.07	3	-0.16	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	480.1	1.8	23.2	15.6	22.2	2.4	31.4	576.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +43.1%

MIL +8.7%

BOS -1.3%

BOS -0.6%

MIL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	BOS	NBA	MIL	BOS	NBA
this game	15.4	16.6	15.6	105.6	102.2	102.3
season	15.3	15.0		104.7	100.9
opponent	15.7	16.0		98.8	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.0	15.9	16.0	17.2	15.4
BOS	15.8	15.4	16.8	18.8	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	72	71	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.43	8	-5	13	15.3	15.7	-0.32	16.2	18.1	-1.86
Sam Cassell	70	67	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.46	5	-2	7	15.7	14.5	1.11	16.4	17.2	-0.79
Glenn Robinson	65	65	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	1	1	15.5	15.1	0.46	15.9	18.4	-2.56
Ervin Johnson	49	47	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.33	0	3	-3	16.3	14.4	1.92	17.1	16.1	0.99
Ray Allen	73	76	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.25	-2	5	-7	15.6	14.8	0.80	16.4	17.9	-1.50
Tim Thomas	52	52	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.17	-1	4	-5	13.9	17.5	-3.62	17.2	15.8	1.38
Joel Przybilla	28	28	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	2	-1	16.1	15.1	1.06	15.9	16.9	-1.06
Darvin Ham	9	10	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	2	-1	17.2	15.2	2.01	21.1	16.0	5.07
Michael Redd	32	34	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.06	1	2	-1	14.4	16.0	-1.56	17.4	16.1	1.32

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vitaly Potapenko	27	28	0.21	-0.71	0.93	0.01	7	-10	17	15.9	16.9	-1.05	13.6	16.2	-2.67
Erick Strickland	40	39	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.10	-3	0	-3	16.7	16.5	0.15	13.5	16.9	-3.40
Rodney Rogers	29	29	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-1	-1	16.6	16.6	0.05	16.1	15.1	1.07
Tony Delk	42	39	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	3	-9	16.1	17.0	-0.88	14.7	15.9	-1.22
Eric Williams	45	48	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.38	5	-8	13	16.1	17.1	-0.96	15.2	15.7	-0.48
Kenny Anderson	68	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.55	3	-6	9	16.4	17.1	-0.72	16.1	13.2	2.90
Antoine Walker	69	68	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.32	-5	2	-7	16.6	16.7	-0.16	15.4	15.4	0.06
Paul Pierce	77	77	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.44	-7	4	-11	16.9	14.6	2.31	15.9	12.6	3.27
Tony Battie	53	53	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.44	-7	4	-11	17.5	15.4	2.10	16.5	13.8	2.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.31,0.25,0.21,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.5,0.43,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.06,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 81, MIL 76	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.69,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.07,0.08,0	91.5%
MEM 110, MIA 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.54,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.71,0.58,0.42,0.59,0.29,0.22,0.38,0.21,0.09,0.02,0	91.3%
CHI 95, MIL 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.41,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.19,0.11,0.03,0.01,0	90.9%