NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	110		Excitement	7.3 [396]		MVP	Mike Conley (MEM): +41.1%
Miami Heat	107		Comeback	2.5 [473]		LVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): -10.3%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Conley	0.41	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.26,0.31,0.41	0.11	0.29	-0.02	13	64%	0.43	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.09
Marc Gasol	0.24	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.22	0.06	0.04	16	78%	0.24	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
JaMychal Green	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.11	0.10	0.00	6	86%	0.22	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Troy Williams	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	-0.01	12	60%	0.22	1	-0.08	6	67%	-0.00
Tony Allen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.03	0.01	9	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Deyonta Davis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Harrison	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.01
Vince Carter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	8	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jarell Martin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.05	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.29	0.29	0.16	0.15	0.02	19	64%	0.30	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Derrick Williams	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.01	-0.04	9	65%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.01	0.07	-0.05	8	53%	0.14	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.01	10	55%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	11	58%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.08
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	7	63%	0.11	2	-0.13	5	80%	0.01
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	10%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1	-0.10	0.03	-0.12	0.01	12	58%	-0.01	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	29.1	15.6	28.2	2.5	35.4	139.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +13.6%

MEM +30.1%

MIA -11.9%

MEM +13.4%

MEM +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	MIA	NBA	MEM	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	16.1	14.8	119.6	117.6	107.7
season	16.1	15.4		106.4	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.9		105.9	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	13.7	14.0	16.0	18.9	15.4
MIA	13.4	17.3	16.0	18.1	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Allen	64	65	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.57	7	-4	11	15.7	14.9	0.80	16.4	15.2	1.22
Marc Gasol	65	67	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.54	6	-3	9	15.4	15.5	-0.10	16.2	15.8	0.37
Troy Williams	66	67	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.55	4	-1	5	15.6	14.8	0.79	16.5	14.8	1.67
JaMychal Green	63	63	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.53	-2	5	-7	15.3	15.6	-0.25	15.4	17.6	-2.17
Mike Conley	69	66	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.32	2	1	1	15.2	16.1	-0.96	15.8	16.7	-0.90
Andrew Harrison	45	45	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	2	-1	15.1	15.7	-0.59	16.0	16.1	-0.09
Jarell Martin	33	31	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.08	2	1	1	15.7	15.3	0.44	17.6	15.2	2.40
Deyonta Davis	23	21	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.17	0	3	-3	15.3	15.4	-0.14	15.4	16.3	-0.83
Vince Carter	32	30	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	-0.15	-5	8	-13	15.4	15.4	-0.01	14.9	16.6	-1.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Babbitt	30	33	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.13	0	-3	3	17.5	15.3	2.19	15.1	15.6	-0.55
Udonis Haslem	2	1	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.06	-2	-1	-1	17.0	16.0	0.96	1.0	15.6	-14.57
Derrick Williams	31	31	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-3	3	16.3	16.0	0.29	14.1	16.1	-1.94
Josh McRoberts	24	25	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.02	-4	1	-5	16.8	15.8	1.04	15.9	15.2	0.70
Dion Waiters	70	71	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.38	7	-10	17	15.4	18.2	-2.82	15.8	14.2	1.52
Tyler Johnson	53	54	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.24	-3	0	-3	15.4	17.1	-1.69	16.0	14.6	1.42
James Johnson	60	61	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	0	-3	16.0	16.3	-0.29	16.1	14.1	1.94
Hassan Whiteside	65	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.46	3	-6	9	15.8	16.8	-1.09	15.4	15.3	0.09
Josh Richardson	57	56	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.47	0	-3	3	15.8	16.4	-0.60	15.2	15.7	-0.42
Rodney McGruder	63	62	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.35	-13	10	-23	16.9	14.2	2.67	14.8	16.6	-1.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.54,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.71,0.58,0.42,0.59,0.29,0.22,0.38,0.21,0.09,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 91, TOR 82	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.51,0.45,0.33,0.27,0.32,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.7,0.66,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.28,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.01,0	92.6%
ORL 107, WAS 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.35,0.17,0.31,0.05,0.03,0.02,0	92.4%
DET 81, MIL 76	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.69,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.07,0.08,0	92.3%