NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	95		Excitement	7.0 [419]		MVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): +10.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	86		Comeback	2.7 [586]		LVP	Brandon Knight (MIL): -18.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.08	-0.00	8	70%	0.19	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Pau Gasol	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.04	0.03	14	63%	0.15	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.00	6	50%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Taj Gibson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.01	17	53%	0.09	1	-0.03	9	56%	-0.02
Mike Dunleavy	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	7	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Tony Snell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.11	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	10	54%	0.04	4	-0.15	4	75%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.00	11	54%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.02	0.02	7	58%	0.04	1	-0.05	5	100%	0.04
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	4	87%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	6	57%	0.03	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	27%	-0.02	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	9	33%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	12	35%	-0.01	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Jabari Parker	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	-0.00	12	31%	-0.13	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	15	29%	-0.16	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.5	29.7	15.8	25.5	2.5	37.4	135.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +56.5%

MIL -1.1%

MIL -16.4%

CHI +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	16.4	14.0	15.1	100.0	90.5	104.2
season	15.5	14.5		105.4	100.5
opponent	15.7	15.2		101.0	102.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.5	15.0	15.6	18.4	16.4
MIL	14.1	12.2	17.1	12.9	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	85	85	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.17	19	-10	29	16.4	15.7	0.74	14.3	11.0	3.31
Derrick Rose	62	61	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.15	19	-10	29	16.9	15.4	1.43	13.6	14.6	-0.98
Jimmy Butler	79	79	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	-6	21	16.3	16.7	-0.47	14.5	11.4	3.11
Pau Gasol	70	71	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.24	8	1	7	16.6	15.6	0.97	14.0	14.0	-0.00
Mike Dunleavy	46	44	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.03	14	-5	19	16.2	16.5	-0.36	15.8	12.4	3.42
Kirk Hinrich	55	57	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.24	-1	10	-11	16.4	16.3	0.14	13.6	14.6	-0.99
Tony Snell	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	9	-9	13.0	16.4	-3.39	0.0	14.0	-13.96
Doug McDermott	16	16	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.16	-6	15	-21	16.7	16.3	0.47	11.4	14.5	-3.11
Nikola Mirotic	34	34	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.06	-9	18	-27	15.7	16.7	-0.97	13.1	14.4	-1.35
Aaron Brooks	27	28	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	0.05	-14	23	-37	15.4	16.7	-1.33	12.6	14.5	-1.86

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerryd Bayless	43	42	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.11	8	-17	25	12.9	14.9	-2.00	16.5	16.2	0.30
Khris Middleton	47	46	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.17	9	-18	27	12.6	15.3	-2.70	16.9	15.8	1.08
Zaza Pachulia	35	36	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-12	15	14.4	13.7	0.75	15.5	16.9	-1.34
Giannis Antetokounmpo	54	53	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.28	7	-16	23	13.9	14.1	-0.20	16.6	16.1	0.47
John Henson	24	24	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-5	1	14.5	13.8	0.67	14.7	16.9	-2.15
O.J. Mayo	55	53	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-8	7	13.8	14.2	-0.46	15.5	17.5	-2.00
Jared Dudley	33	35	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.03	-7	-2	-5	14.9	13.5	1.46	16.3	16.4	-0.07
Ersan Ilyasova	31	31	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.04	-13	4	-17	15.3	13.3	2.03	16.5	16.3	0.14
Larry Sanders	44	44	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.17	-9	0	-9	14.1	13.8	0.33	17.7	15.2	2.47
Jabari Parker	50	50	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.06	-19	10	-29	13.7	14.3	-0.59	16.1	16.6	-0.46
Brandon Knight	59	61	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.15	-19	10	-29	14.5	13.1	1.36	16.7	15.7	1.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.41,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.19,0.11,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 104, CHA 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.47,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.63,0.55,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.41,0.31,0.23,0.29,0.18,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.16,0.16,0.02,0	93.1%
SAS 95, SAC 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.59,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.2,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.43,0.47,0.52,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.26,0.04,0,0,0	93.1%
MIN 103, MIL 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.47,0.31,0.16,0.04,0,0	93.0%