NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	101		Excitement	8.3 [237]		MVP	Fred VanVleet (HOU): +54.8%
Houston Rockets	104		Comeback	28.7 [71]		LVP	Tari Eason (HOU): -12.0%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	2	125%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hawkins	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.06	-0.01	11	54%	0.14	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.06
Cody Zeller	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	-0.00	12	60%	0.11	2	-0.09	1	0%	-0.02
Zion Williamson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	16	56%	0.11	5	-0.10	11	73%	0.02
Dyson Daniels	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	56%	0.08	2	-0.11	6	100%	0.07
Dereon Seabron	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Ingram	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.17,0.17,-0.04	0.02	-0.04	0.02	24	54%	0.07	4	-0.12	9	67%	-0.02
Matt Ryan	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Larry Nance Jr.	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	50%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.55	0.55	0.09	0.45	-0.01	15	62%	0.58	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.05
Alperen Sengun	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.04	0.02	15	69%	0.22	4	-0.12	5	40%	-0.07
Jalen Green	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	18	54%	0.07	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.03
Dillon Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.04	-0.03	7	53%	0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.04
Jae'Sean Tate	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Jock Landale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	5	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	8	35%	-0.04	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Tari Eason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	8	12%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	1.8	29.2	14.6	30.5	1.7	42.2	147.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +15.4%

HOU +4.2%

HOU +0.1%

HOU +33.2%

NOP -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	HOU	NBA	NOP	HOU	NBA
this game	14.4	14.8	14.5	104.1	104.0	113.9
season	14.4	14.2		114.8	113.2
opponent	14.6	14.7		112.2	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	13.4	16.2	12.5	15.5	14.4
HOU	16.4	13.2	16.8	12.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valanciunas	57	57	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.02	2	-5	7	14.5	14.3	0.16	16.2	12.9	3.30
Cody Zeller	7	8	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-7	11	13.0	14.6	-1.56	15.0	14.8	0.23
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	17	19	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.09	-7	4	-11	16.2	14.1	2.10	14.3	14.9	-0.65
Matt Ryan	36	36	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.13	-9	6	-15	13.5	15.0	-1.50	13.2	15.7	-2.41
Dereon Seabron	26	27	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.09	-9	6	-15	14.7	14.4	0.29	13.3	15.4	-2.10
Dyson Daniels	80	82	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.52	9	-12	21	14.5	14.0	0.54	15.5	11.5	4.01
Jordan Hawkins	82	86	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.41	1	-4	5	14.4	14.7	-0.34	14.9	13.9	1.08
Zion Williamson	70	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.44	2	-5	7	14.2	15.1	-0.98	14.3	16.1	-1.78
Brandon Ingram	77	78	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.58	1	-4	5	14.6	13.7	0.94	15.7	11.6	4.10
Larry Nance Jr.	33	35	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.39	-9	6	-15	14.6	14.3	0.29	12.4	16.1	-3.63

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dillon Brooks	45	45	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.47	13	-10	23	13.0	16.3	-3.34	15.4	13.6	1.78
Jeff Green	47	45	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.46	12	-9	21	14.2	15.3	-1.09	15.4	13.6	1.83
Alperen Sengun	67	65	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.55	-3	6	-9	15.8	12.7	3.08	14.2	14.9	-0.64
Fred VanVleet	84	82	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.60	-6	9	-15	14.9	14.1	0.87	14.5	14.1	0.37
Tari Eason	42	41	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.26	-2	5	-7	13.6	15.7	-2.10	13.1	15.4	-2.29
Jalen Green	73	70	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.15	-3	6	-9	15.3	13.4	1.84	14.1	15.3	-1.23
Jae'Sean Tate	46	46	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	0	3	16.3	13.5	2.72	14.9	14.0	0.93
Aaron Holiday	29	29	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.24	8	-5	13	14.8	14.8	-0.04	13.9	14.7	-0.78
Jock Landale	17	16	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.13	1	2	-1	12.6	15.2	-2.58	13.1	14.7	-1.58
Jabari Smith Jr.	50	46	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.02	-8	11	-19	15.1	14.5	0.58	14.8	14.2	0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.61,0.69,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.67,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.39,0.27,0.35,0.45,0.35,0.41,0.33,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.09,0.11,0.29,0.16,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 89, TOR 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.24,0.14,0.31,0.15,0.15,0.08,1	89.3%
NYK 87, CLE 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.29,0.38,0.34,0.18,0.1,0.12,0.22,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.19,0.28,0.43,0.42,1	88.3%
MEM 91, OKC 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.2,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.38,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.17,0.31,0.45,0.33,0.08,1	88.3%