NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	4.1 [1060]		MVP	Daniel Gafford (WAS): +21.9%
Washington Wizards	114		Comeback	1.4 [454]		LVP	Duncan Robinson (MIA): -8.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Cain	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.00	-0.02	8	63%	0.11	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Cody Zeller	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.01	0.04	10	81%	0.15	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Orlando Robinson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Omer Yurtseven	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.06	7	71%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.02	0.05	10	55%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	10	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	8	25%	-0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	0.08	0.00	0.13	24	58%	-0.00	3	-0.04	4	25%	-0.03
Haywood Highsmith	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	11	42%	-0.02	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Duncan Robinson	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	8	31%	-0.06	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.18	0.04	0.00	10	92%	0.26	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Corey Kispert	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	12	63%	0.14	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Delon Wright	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	7	65%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jay Huff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.03	7	72%	0.03	2	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Xavier Cooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.02	5	62%	0.01	1	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02
Johnny Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	-0.02	-0.08	20	40%	0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Quenton Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	0.00	-0.07	3	37%	0.01	3	-0.03	10	60%	0.01
Jordan Goodwin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	9	33%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Nunn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	44%	-0.01	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Anthony Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.0	27.2	14.7	25.3	2.5	37.6	133.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +20.9%

WAS +17.9%

WAS +2.7%

WAS +11.9%

MIA -3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	13.9	13.5	14.4	102.9	108.6	113.4
season	15.1	14.8		111.9	113.4
opponent	14.2	14.6		114.6	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.7	17.3	13.8	11.9	13.9
WAS	13.5	15.4	13.9	11.7	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Cain	66	68	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.43	18	-24	42	13.3	15.1	-1.80	13.7	13.1	0.54
Victor Oladipo	57	58	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.47	18	-24	42	12.8	15.3	-2.52	13.7	13.2	0.46
Omer Yurtseven	38	39	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.42	16	-22	38	13.5	14.2	-0.65	12.8	13.9	-1.02
Caleb Martin	41	41	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.03	0	-6	6	13.8	14.1	-0.31	15.2	12.4	2.76
Orlando Robinson	38	39	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.44	14	-20	34	11.6	15.3	-3.62	13.1	13.7	-0.65
Duncan Robinson	62	62	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.06	-12	6	-18	13.3	14.9	-1.59	13.7	13.1	0.59
Cody Zeller	48	46	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	0.18	-24	18	-42	15.3	12.8	2.52	13.0	13.8	-0.83
Gabe Vincent	48	47	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	0.15	-24	18	-42	15.3	12.8	2.52	13.2	13.7	-0.46
Haywood Highsmith	73	72	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.22	-12	6	-18	14.7	12.2	2.48	12.7	15.1	-2.39
Max Strus	54	53	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	0.12	-24	18	-42	15.3	12.5	2.86	13.8	13.1	0.73

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny Davis	81	82	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.28	12	-6	18	13.5	13.6	-0.13	14.0	13.7	0.32
Anthony Gill	41	41	0.61	-0.11	0.73	-0.12	25	-19	44	13.7	13.4	0.32	14.9	13.3	1.53
Daniel Gafford	51	53	0.55	-0.05	0.61	-0.15	24	-18	42	13.7	13.3	0.35	15.6	12.3	3.32
Delon Wright	43	45	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.09	18	-12	30	13.1	13.8	-0.70	15.0	13.2	1.77
Corey Kispert	75	76	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.20	4	2	2	12.7	15.5	-2.87	14.4	12.8	1.59
Jordan Goodwin	42	41	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.05	7	-1	8	15.0	12.5	2.52	14.4	13.6	0.77
Quenton Jackson	50	49	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.31	-11	17	-28	12.6	14.3	-1.65	13.9	14.0	-0.05
Kendrick Nunn	36	34	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.25	-9	15	-24	15.4	12.5	2.98	12.2	14.8	-2.53
Jay Huff	54	52	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.48	-18	24	-42	13.3	13.7	-0.35	12.3	15.6	-3.32
Xavier Cooks	52	52	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.51	-22	28	-50	13.2	13.8	-0.66	12.3	15.5	-3.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.69,0.83,0.83,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 82, LAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.72,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.92,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
ORL 90, BKN 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.72,0.69,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
MIN 100, UTA 117	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.85,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%