NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	95		Excitement	8.3 [285]		MVP	Haywood Highsmith (MIA): +25.5%
Miami Heat	98		Comeback	8.6 [284]		LVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): -23.3%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Williams	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.14	-0.01	0.15	-0.00	6	71%	0.24	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Robert Williams III	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13	0.04	0.09	-0.00	6	85%	0.19	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	4	70%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick White	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	-0.05	0.01	17	55%	0.07	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.03
Justin Jackson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blake Griffin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	6	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	14	36%	-0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	-0.23	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,-0.04,-0.23	0.06	-0.28	0.01	18	62%	0.23	7	-0.47	14	79%	0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25	0.25	0.15	0.11	0.00	7	94%	0.25	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.04,0.24	0.24	0.06	0.18	0.00	22	58%	0.32	3	-0.08	8	75%	-0.02
Orlando Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	83%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.02	0.02	10	59%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Caleb Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	5	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	7	39%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	16	36%	-0.03	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.11,-0.13,-0.22,-0.1	-0.10	-0.14	0.04	0.00	19	24%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	7	14%	-0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.9	2.8	24.5	16.3	32.0	2.8	27.9	137.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -6.1%

BOS -16.8%

MIA +23.7%

MIA +49.8%

BOS -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	14.3	14.4	101.1	104.3	113.4
season	14.5	15.1		116.3	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.6		112.1	110.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.2	14.5	16.6	17.4	16.1
MIA	14.3	13.2	14.7	15.3	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Kornet	24	26	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.08	-1	-2	1	14.7	16.6	-1.89	14.3	14.4	-0.05
Justin Jackson	29	29	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.12	-5	2	-7	15.1	16.6	-1.47	14.6	14.2	0.36
Sam Hauser	52	53	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-2	1	16.0	16.2	-0.18	13.1	16.0	-2.90
Blake Griffin	7	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	0	-3	18.4	15.9	2.50	16.4	14.2	2.26
Grant Williams	71	70	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.37	3	-6	9	16.0	16.5	-0.48	14.3	14.4	-0.10
Payton Pritchard	83	83	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.42	1	-4	5	16.2	15.5	0.75	14.5	13.0	1.52
Robert Williams III	63	61	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.51	1	-4	5	16.4	15.5	0.85	14.1	14.8	-0.64
Jayson Tatum	77	78	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.52	-3	0	-3	16.1	16.1	0.07	14.3	14.4	-0.12
Derrick White	64	63	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.45	-7	4	-11	16.6	15.0	1.64	15.1	12.8	2.34

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gabe Vincent	50	49	0.91	-0.41	1.33	0.44	16	-13	29	14.1	14.6	-0.47	15.9	16.3	-0.37
Tyler Herro	69	71	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.45	11	-8	19	14.6	13.7	0.90	16.3	15.4	0.90
Haywood Highsmith	62	60	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.40	12	-9	21	14.4	14.2	0.18	15.4	17.3	-1.89
Max Strus	72	74	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.48	4	-1	5	13.7	16.4	-2.70	16.3	15.3	0.97
Bam Adebayo	73	75	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.41	3	0	3	14.0	15.4	-1.40	16.0	16.5	-0.51
Orlando Robinson	21	19	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	3	-3	15.4	14.0	1.40	16.5	16.0	0.51
Caleb Martin	20	23	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.02	-7	10	-17	13.5	14.6	-1.00	17.3	15.7	1.51
Kyle Lowry	56	56	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.06	-10	13	-23	14.6	13.9	0.66	16.6	15.5	1.08
Victor Oladipo	47	43	-0.46	0.96	-1.43	-0.05	-14	17	-31	15.1	13.6	1.57	15.4	16.7	-1.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.44,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.13,0.16,0.3,0.35,0.6,0.61,0.87,0.78,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 117, DAL 118	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.1,0.21,0.2,0.26,0.15,0.15,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.46,0.83,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.73,1	91.7%
NYK 104, IND 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.13,0.22,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.12,0.24,0.32,0.36,0.46,0.6,0.76,0.94,0.77,0.91,1	91.4%
WAS 119, ATL 122	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.26,0.53,0.67,0.61,0.85,0.8,0.91,1	91.1%