NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	96		Excitement	9.1 [162]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +24.6%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	7.4 [496]		LVP	CJ McCollum (NOP): -33.6%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Nance Jr.	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.24	0.07	0.17	-0.00	7	75%	0.25	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Trey Murphy III	0.15	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.08	0.03	11	68%	0.19	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Herbert Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	5	79%	0.17	3	-0.14	4	75%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0.02	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	14	50%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Devonte' Graham	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jaxson Hayes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	4	73%	0.09	3	-0.12	3	67%	-0.00
Dyson Daniels	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,-0.09	-0.01	-0.09	-0.01	7	69%	0.21	4	-0.30	2	100%	0.03
Jose Alvarado	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.03	-0.04	8	19%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	-0.34	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.35,-0.22,-0.22,-0.34	-0.18	-0.16	0.00	16	38%	-0.12	7	-0.21	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.13	0.12	-0.00	7	75%	0.27	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.03
Kyle Lowry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.14,0.21,0.42,0.21	0.21	0.07	0.16	0.01	9	85%	0.38	4	-0.17	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.06	0.01	12	64%	0.18	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Orlando Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	9	48%	0.03	4	-0.06	5	60%	-0.07
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.00	6	42%	0.05	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.02	22	57%	0.15	5	-0.20	2	100%	0.01
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	5	0%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	9	20%	-0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	1.0	24.0	13.7	30.4	2.5	36.2	136.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP -8.1%

MIA +4.3%

MIA +13.5%

MIA +39.0%

MIA +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	MIA	NBA	NOP	MIA	NBA
this game	14.0	14.2	14.4	95.0	97.1	113.4
season	14.2	15.1		113.4	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.6		112.1	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	12.9	14.5	14.6	14.2	14.0
MIA	14.3	13.2	14.8	14.6	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valanciunas	53	53	0.14	-0.64	0.77	0.02	4	-8	12	14.1	14.0	0.01	14.9	13.4	1.45
Devonte' Graham	38	37	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.16	8	-12	20	14.0	14.1	-0.04	13.1	14.8	-1.72
Jose Alvarado	47	47	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-4	4	14.9	13.3	1.54	14.0	14.4	-0.38
Dyson Daniels	67	66	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.29	9	-13	22	13.3	15.5	-2.23	14.1	14.4	-0.34
Jaxson Hayes	36	36	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.09	-5	1	-6	14.9	13.6	1.35	14.6	14.0	0.57
Larry Nance Jr.	56	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-1	-2	14.0	14.1	-0.15	13.3	15.3	-1.95
Herbert Jones	61	66	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.35	-6	2	-8	13.9	14.3	-0.41	14.7	13.3	1.43
Trey Murphy III	71	74	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.40	-11	7	-18	13.9	14.3	-0.36	14.3	14.0	0.26
CJ McCollum	76	79	-0.86	0.36	-1.22	-0.39	-16	12	-28	14.1	14.0	0.12	14.4	13.4	1.00

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	65	62	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.38	10	-6	16	14.2	14.1	0.08	13.6	14.7	-1.13
Victor Oladipo	71	69	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.27	10	-6	16	13.5	15.6	-2.09	14.2	13.7	0.58
Tyler Herro	75	74	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.31	8	-4	12	14.7	12.9	1.72	14.1	14.0	0.12
Jimmy Butler	74	70	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.27	7	-3	10	14.3	13.9	0.35	13.9	14.5	-0.58
Bam Adebayo	77	76	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.53	-2	6	-8	14.1	14.5	-0.42	13.4	15.9	-2.43
Caleb Martin	59	60	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.22	-5	9	-14	14.0	14.4	-0.43	13.7	14.6	-0.94
Orlando Robinson	26	25	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.15	6	-2	8	14.5	14.1	0.42	15.9	13.4	2.43
Max Strus	30	30	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.07	-8	12	-20	14.7	14.0	0.68	14.7	13.8	0.97
Gabe Vincent	38	39	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.00	-6	10	-16	14.1	14.2	-0.08	14.7	13.6	1.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.27,0.33,0.27,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.56,0.41,0.44,0.38,0.52,0.43,0.62,0.53,0.41,0.6,0.6,0.69,0.85,0.78,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 92, MIL 94	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.77,0.86,0.89,0.69,0.84,1	91.9%
MIN 82, NJN 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.77,0.74,1	91.0%
VAN 87, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.31,0.42,0.3,0.37,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.53,0.73,0.89,0.9,0.91,1	90.8%