NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	124		Excitement	2.4 [1264]		MVP	Gabe Vincent (MIA): +8.8%
New Orleans Pelicans	98		Comeback	1.0 [1039]		LVP	Dyson Daniels (NOP): -2.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gabe Vincent	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.01	14	57%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	-0.00	13	62%	0.10	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.13	0.01	0.08	15	72%	0.08	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Orlando Robinson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	7	62%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	58%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	64%	0.04	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Max Strus	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	0.00	0.05	13	62%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	13	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Caleb Martin	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.01	7	62%	0.01	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Haywood Highsmith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	0.00	0.03	17	62%	0.06	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Willy Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.01	3	64%	0.01	1	0.00	5	60%	0.01
Naji Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	13	41%	0.01	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	0.01	0.05	11	72%	0.05	4	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaxson Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kira Lewis Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	150%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Alvarado	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.05	9	61%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Devonte' Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.04	3	75%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
Trey Murphy III	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	9	28%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dyson Daniels	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	8	53%	-0.00	5	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	1.8	28.4	14.5	23.9	1.6	27.5	124.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +30.2%

MIA +5.0%

MIA +7.8%

MIA +5.8%

MIA +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NOP	NBA	MIA	NOP	NBA
this game	15.9	14.1	14.4	129.2	102.1	113.4
season	15.1	14.2		111.9	113.4
opponent	14.6	14.6		111.6	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.9	15.6	16.0	19.2	15.9
NOP	14.8	15.7	14.7	11.2	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	54	52	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.09	16	10	6	15.5	16.4	-0.88	15.1	13.0	2.01
Caleb Martin	72	73	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.31	23	3	20	15.5	16.9	-1.40	14.0	14.5	-0.51
Tyler Herro	49	48	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.13	17	9	8	15.3	16.4	-1.06	15.2	13.0	2.23
Bam Adebayo	63	65	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.13	16	10	6	14.1	19.3	-5.19	15.0	12.4	2.53
Kyle Lowry	44	44	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.11	15	11	4	14.6	16.9	-2.35	15.4	13.1	2.31
Victor Oladipo	50	52	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.16	13	13	0	15.0	16.8	-1.85	14.1	14.2	-0.13
Gabe Vincent	52	52	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.15	11	15	-4	16.9	14.6	2.35	13.1	15.4	-2.31
Max Strus	53	53	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.16	11	15	-4	16.9	14.6	2.24	13.1	15.5	-2.41
Orlando Robinson	33	31	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.13	10	16	-6	19.3	14.1	5.19	12.4	15.0	-2.53
Haywood Highsmith	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	28	-30	22.1	15.1	6.96	10.9	14.5	-3.61

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Garrett Temple	10	10	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-28	30	10.9	14.5	-3.61	22.1	15.1	6.96
Jaxson Hayes	10	10	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-28	30	10.9	14.5	-3.61	22.1	15.1	6.96
Kira Lewis Jr.	10	10	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-28	30	10.9	14.5	-3.61	22.1	15.1	6.96
Willy Hernangomez	22	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.07	1	-27	28	13.2	14.4	-1.24	16.2	15.8	0.42
Larry Nance Jr.	35	33	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.12	-7	-19	12	13.9	14.3	-0.39	15.1	16.3	-1.18
Devonte' Graham	40	40	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.28	-16	-10	-6	13.4	14.7	-1.30	15.8	15.9	-0.11
Jose Alvarado	52	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.18	-17	-9	-8	14.7	13.4	1.30	14.6	17.2	-2.56
Naji Marshall	64	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.14	-16	-10	-6	15.0	12.4	2.59	14.9	17.9	-3.02
CJ McCollum	62	64	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.19	-18	-8	-10	14.3	13.8	0.53	15.5	16.7	-1.19
Dyson Daniels	67	67	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.24	-21	-5	-16	13.9	14.6	-0.70	16.4	14.7	1.73
Trey Murphy III	57	59	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.20	-21	-5	-16	14.7	13.3	1.39	15.6	16.2	-0.57
Jonas Valanciunas	51	53	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.20	-21	-5	-16	14.9	13.2	1.72	15.2	16.7	-1.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 110, MIL 79	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.7%
ATL 101, VAN 76	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.5%
CHI 118, BKN 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%