NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	113		Excitement	11.4 [32]		MVP	Trae Young (ATL): +29.9%
Indiana Pacers	111		Comeback	8.2 [246]		LVP	Andrew Nembhard (IND): -50.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trae Young	0.30	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.3	0.12	0.20	0.02	16	63%	0.37	2	-0.07	9	89%	0.02
De'Andre Hunter	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.15	0.14	0.00	16	71%	0.35	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
John Collins	0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.24	-0.09	0.29	-0.04	9	32%	0.27	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Onyeka Okongwu	0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	-0.01	0.00	12	72%	0.13	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Jalen Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	87%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Dejounte Murray	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.17,0.08,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	18	47%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.04
AJ Griffin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bogdan Bogdanovic	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	9	22%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bennedict Mathurin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.18	0.18	0.04	0.14	-0.01	18	55%	0.27	3	-0.08	11	73%	-0.09
Oshae Brissett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.07	-0.00	12	63%	0.17	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Jalen Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.11	0.00	8	61%	0.20	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.03
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.07,-0.04,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.10	0.01	15	55%	0.15	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.08
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.03	0.00	10	62%	0.11	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Chris Duarte	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.03	0.00	9	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Isaiah Jackson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	13	38%	-0.01	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nembhard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.39,-0.5,-0.5	-0.50	-0.16	-0.35	-0.00	16	18%	-0.47	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	1.8	26.3	16.7	32.4	1.8	33.0	140.4
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +98.2%

IND -30.7%

IND -10.5%

IND -5.2%

IND -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	IND	NBA	ATL	IND	NBA
this game	14.5	14.3	14.4	113.0	111.0	113.4
season	13.8	13.7		115.1	113.3
opponent	14.4	14.4		116.4	114.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.4	14.3	14.3	16.2	14.5
IND	14.3	12.4	14.5	16.5	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Onyeka Okongwu	81	80	1.01	-0.51	1.52	0.45	19	-17	36	14.5	14.6	-0.16	14.9	11.9	2.94
De'Andre Hunter	69	70	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.67	8	-6	14	14.5	14.5	-0.07	14.9	12.9	2.00
Trae Young	75	76	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.29	20	-18	38	14.1	15.6	-1.41	14.6	13.2	1.38
Dejounte Murray	73	73	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.55	7	-5	12	14.7	13.9	0.79	15.1	12.1	3.00
John Collins	55	57	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.55	-2	4	-6	14.5	14.5	0.06	14.9	13.6	1.30
Aaron Holiday	26	25	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.11	-4	6	-10	13.9	14.7	-0.78	12.1	15.0	-2.91
AJ Griffin	33	31	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	0.10	-17	19	-36	14.7	14.4	0.29	12.5	15.1	-2.59
Jalen Johnson	31	32	-0.45	0.95	-1.39	-0.18	-9	11	-20	14.5	14.5	0.02	12.8	15.0	-2.14
Bogdan Bogdanovic	57	56	-0.46	0.96	-1.43	-0.11	-12	14	-26	14.9	14.0	0.88	13.4	15.4	-1.98

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Smith	42	42	0.46	-0.96	1.41	-0.04	17	-19	36	13.6	14.8	-1.26	15.2	14.0	1.15
Bennedict Mathurin	81	81	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.28	13	-15	28	14.4	13.8	0.63	14.7	13.8	0.88
T.J. McConnell	50	50	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.26	5	-7	12	14.0	14.6	-0.64	15.0	14.0	0.92
Oshae Brissett	64	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.45	3	-5	8	13.9	15.0	-1.05	14.8	13.9	0.91
Chris Duarte	54	54	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.24	-24	22	-46	14.7	13.8	0.88	14.2	14.8	-0.56
Buddy Hield	81	81	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.31	-7	5	-12	14.4	13.7	0.70	14.2	15.8	-1.66
Andrew Nembhard	70	71	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.67	0	-2	2	14.3	14.4	-0.10	14.3	15.1	-0.85
Isaiah Jackson	58	57	-0.93	0.43	-1.37	-0.43	-17	15	-32	14.8	13.6	1.26	14.0	15.2	-1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.68,0.63,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.29,0.24,0.33,0.44,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.86,0.88,0.74,0.59,0.4,0.64,0.78,0.45,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 94, MIL 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.17,0.22,0.32,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.69,0.7,0.53,0.76,0.54,0.33,0.15,0	89.7%
UTA 88, GSW 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.54,0.61,0.79,0.68,0.73,0	88.6%
LAL 111, MIN 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.51,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.52,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.55,0.46,0.32,0.42,0	88.2%