NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	94		Excitement	7.4 [352]		MVP	John Salmons (MIL): +20.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	87		Comeback	3.9 [272]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): -24.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.13,0.11	0.13	0.02	0.05	30	58%	0.19	2	-0.08	5	100%	0.05
Kenyon Martin	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.05	-0.01	8	58%	0.13	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Al Harrington	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	5	58%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,0.03,0.03,0.05	0.04	0.04	0.02	13	61%	0.20	3	-0.15	7	100%	0.03
Nene	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	71%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
J.R. Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	5	25%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Arron Afflalo	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	30%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.21	0.21	0.20	0.02	0.01	23	63%	0.21	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.01	12	48%	0.08	0	0.00	9	78%	0.01
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	10	48%	0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jon Brockman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	42%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.15	-0.07	-0.01	7	17%	-0.13	3	-0.09	4	25%	-0.06
Brandon Jennings	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	11	17%	-0.21	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	3.7	30.8	18.7	31.4	3.4	36.5	149.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +52.2%

MIL -6.1%

DEN +4.0%

MIL -5.1%

DEN +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIL	NBA	DEN	MIL	NBA
this game	16.2	14.4	15.5	100.0	92.6	105.7
season	14.3	16.2		110.7	100.1
opponent	15.4	15.5		100.9	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.4	16.0	16.0	15.6	16.2
MIL	16.9	12.3	12.8	16.4	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	67	68	1.12	-0.62	1.75	0.36	26	-19	45	15.9	17.0	-1.16	14.9	13.2	1.65
Arron Afflalo	59	60	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.49	13	-6	19	15.7	17.0	-1.25	14.0	15.1	-1.13
Chauncey Billups	70	70	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.27	15	-8	23	16.5	15.5	0.96	14.1	15.5	-1.44
Carmelo Anthony	85	86	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.24	13	-6	19	15.9	19.0	-3.08	14.7	11.4	3.33
Nene	49	50	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.27	7	0	7	17.3	15.0	2.33	14.5	14.3	0.24
Chris Andersen	38	36	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.01	-7	14	-21	15.1	16.9	-1.81	13.4	15.0	-1.59
Ty Lawson	24	24	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.02	-8	15	-23	15.5	16.5	-0.96	15.5	14.1	1.44
Al Harrington	34	34	-0.41	0.91	-1.31	-0.05	-12	19	-31	16.5	16.1	0.40	14.4	14.4	-0.07
J.R. Smith	44	42	-0.49	0.99	-1.48	-0.14	-12	19	-31	17.4	15.2	2.25	14.4	14.4	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Boykins	40	40	0.59	-1.09	1.68	0.06	18	-25	43	13.8	14.9	-1.09	17.4	15.4	2.02
Larry Sanders	13	13	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.06	7	-14	21	10.8	15.0	-4.15	17.1	16.1	1.00
Corey Maggette	49	50	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.31	10	-17	27	13.6	15.3	-1.66	16.1	16.3	-0.24
Jon Brockman	5	5	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	-2	-3	20.6	14.1	6.52	15.8	16.2	-0.44
Carlos Delfino	60	58	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.02	-13	6	-19	14.1	15.1	-0.99	15.9	16.7	-0.83
Andrew Bogut	89	89	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.32	-2	-5	3	14.1	20.6	-6.52	16.2	15.8	0.44
John Salmons	81	82	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.25	-13	6	-19	15.0	10.8	4.15	16.1	16.9	-0.81
Luc Mbah a Moute	79	79	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.28	-12	5	-17	15.2	10.4	4.79	16.5	14.8	1.68
Brandon Jennings	54	54	-1.09	0.59	-1.68	-0.36	-25	18	-43	14.9	13.8	1.09	15.4	17.4	-2.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.17,0.22,0.32,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.69,0.7,0.53,0.76,0.54,0.33,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 89, UTA 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.57,0.57,0.76,0.85,0.78,0.59,0.6,0.81,0.55,0.16,0.08,0	91.2%
PHX 87, BOS 80	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.37,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.36,0.34,0.57,0.66,0.67,0.47,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.55,0.43,0.42,0	90.7%
MIL 90, MIA 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.28,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.22,0.28,0	90.4%