NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	111		Excitement	7.7 [390]		MVP	Jalen Williams (OKC): +25.1%
Oklahoma City Thunder	119		Comeback	15.1 [173]		LVP	Keldon Johnson (SAS): -26.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Vassell	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.13	0.17	-0.05	-0.01	13	71%	0.27	1	-0.14	9	89%	0.00
Romeo Langford	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.06	0.01	9	70%	0.18	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Alize Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Collins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	6	75%	0.09	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malaki Branham	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Keita Bates-Diop	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0	0.04	-0.03	0.02	10	52%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.02
Isaiah Roby	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tre Jones	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.03	-0.13	0.01	14	48%	-0.08	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Keldon Johnson	-0.27	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.12,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27	-0.08	-0.18	0.01	22	37%	-0.20	1	-0.06	8	62%	-0.02

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.25	0.25	0.16	0.13	0.03	15	77%	0.30	3	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02
Ousmane Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.00	6	71%	0.10	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Kenrich Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	5	75%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tre Mann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.12,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.05	0.01	13	62%	0.16	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	58%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.09	-0.04	0.07	15	64%	0.13	2	-0.15	6	100%	0.02
Josh Giddey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	18	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Bazley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Aleksej Pokusevski	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	0.01	-0.03	9	25%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.5	29.4	14.5	24.7	2.0	31.0	129.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +63.2%

SAS -18.6%

OKC +4.0%

OKC +2.5%

SAS -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	OKC	NBA	SAS	OKC	NBA
this game	14.3	14.1	14.4	107.8	119.0	113.4
season	14.0	13.7		109.2	113.5
opponent	14.5	14.1		112.8	119.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.9	11.0	15.8	15.7	14.3
OKC	13.8	16.3	14.2	12.0	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alize Johnson	12	15	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.04	6	-14	20	11.4	14.7	-3.26	17.3	13.5	3.76
Doug McDermott	32	33	0.17	-0.67	0.83	-0.04	7	-15	22	14.1	14.4	-0.35	15.0	13.6	1.39
Devin Vassell	80	75	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.09	-3	-5	2	13.7	16.3	-2.52	14.5	12.6	1.91
Romeo Langford	43	46	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.13	-3	-5	2	14.1	14.4	-0.36	14.0	14.1	-0.09
Isaiah Roby	38	36	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.18	-2	-6	4	13.8	14.6	-0.81	14.0	14.1	-0.11
Tre Jones	72	66	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.05	-8	0	-8	14.2	14.6	-0.45	14.2	13.9	0.33
Malaki Branham	42	42	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-5	2	13.8	14.7	-0.87	12.9	14.9	-2.01
Zach Collins	58	56	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.08	-11	3	-14	14.9	13.5	1.40	13.8	14.4	-0.61
Keldon Johnson	77	73	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.21	-8	0	-8	15.1	11.9	3.18	13.8	14.8	-1.02
Keita Bates-Diop	61	58	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.32	-15	7	-22	15.1	13.1	2.00	13.5	14.9	-1.36

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darius Bazley	31	29	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.11	14	-6	20	12.7	14.7	-1.97	14.2	14.3	-0.08
Jalen Williams	72	76	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.12	12	-4	16	13.5	15.6	-2.09	13.9	15.6	-1.70
Luguentz Dort	69	70	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.17	9	-1	10	13.8	14.7	-0.97	15.5	11.8	3.61
Josh Giddey	65	67	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.25	6	2	4	14.4	13.5	0.94	15.4	12.2	3.28
Ousmane Dieng	49	47	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.18	7	1	6	14.0	14.1	-0.10	13.9	14.7	-0.79
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	52	54	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.06	9	-1	10	13.8	14.4	-0.55	15.8	12.6	3.18
Tre Mann	54	56	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.20	4	4	0	14.9	13.1	1.78	13.8	14.9	-1.05
Kenrich Williams	39	43	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	6	-4	13.7	14.3	-0.54	14.1	14.4	-0.36
Isaiah Joe	17	19	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	6	-4	14.2	14.0	0.13	12.8	14.6	-1.79
Aaron Wiggins	15	15	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.07	-11	19	-30	15.0	13.9	1.09	11.1	14.8	-3.71
Aleksej Pokusevski	37	39	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.09	-14	22	-36	15.5	13.2	2.25	12.4	15.4	-3.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.13,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.19,0.34,0.34,0.47,0.32,0.47,0.76,0.61,0.76,0.64,0.89,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 96, TOR 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.38,0.53,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.72,1	91.2%
SAC 103, OKC 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.27,0.36,0.44,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.21,0.26,0.21,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.29,0.32,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.74,1	90.8%
WAS 96, NOK 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.12,0.21,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.53,0.66,0.69,0.79,0.9,0.72,1	90.4%