NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	108		Excitement	8.1 [330]		MVP	D'Angelo Russell (MIN): +13.2%
Charlotte Hornets	110		Comeback	3.9 [206]		LVP	Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): -23.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D'Angelo Russell	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.13	0.07	0.07	0.01	15	67%	0.21	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Naz Reid	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	70%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Edwards	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.06	-0.03	-0.00	21	57%	0.07	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Gobert	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0	0.07	-0.03	0.04	10	68%	0.05	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Austin Rivers	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jaylen Nowell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	9	44%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	5	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jaden McDaniels	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21	-0.12	-0.09	-0.01	7	14%	-0.11	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Karl-Anthony Towns	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24	-0.09	-0.13	0.01	22	37%	-0.18	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.01

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Theo Maledon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.01	7	70%	0.16	1	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.00	0.02	21	56%	0.11	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.03
James Bouknight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.00	5	80%	0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kai Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	5	64%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.13	0.06	-0.04	23	44%	0.13	6	-0.15	4	75%	0.01
P.J. Washington	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.05	0.01	13	53%	0.01	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Nick Richards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jalen McDaniels	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	9	40%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	4	25%	-0.09	3	-0.10	4	25%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.0	27.0	14.8	28.2	1.7	37.6	138.4
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +27.3%

CHA +4.3%

CHA +25.3%

MIN -5.6%

MIN -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	CHA	NBA	MIN	CHA	NBA
this game	12.8	13.7	14.4	100.0	100.9	113.4
season	14.1	14.0		112.4	107.8
opponent	14.3	14.3		114.4	112.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	12.7	12.3	12.6	13.8	12.8
CHA	12.1	14.4	12.6	16.2	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaylen Nowell	39	41	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	2	-6	12.8	12.8	0.03	13.1	14.1	-1.03
Naz Reid	29	30	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.08	-3	1	-4	12.8	12.8	0.00	14.0	13.6	0.44
Rudy Gobert	75	78	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.40	6	-8	14	12.7	13.2	-0.52	14.3	12.3	1.99
Anthony Edwards	84	83	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.46	7	-9	16	12.6	13.5	-0.87	14.1	12.5	1.65
Jaden McDaniels	55	55	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.26	0	-2	2	12.8	12.9	-0.12	14.1	13.3	0.83
Austin Rivers	41	42	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.17	-4	2	-6	13.4	12.5	0.87	12.6	14.4	-1.75
D'Angelo Russell	80	80	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-1	0	12.6	13.3	-0.67	14.0	12.8	1.26
Kyle Anderson	54	54	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.12	-7	5	-12	13.0	12.6	0.39	12.6	14.9	-2.30
Karl-Anthony Towns	83	82	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.40	-4	2	-6	13.0	12.4	0.60	13.7	13.8	-0.08

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Oubre Jr.	76	77	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.26	7	-5	12	14.0	13.2	0.81	12.8	12.8	-0.02
James Bouknight	35	34	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	-4	10	12.8	14.1	-1.35	12.9	12.8	0.17
Terry Rozier	87	84	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.48	-5	7	-12	13.9	13.0	0.84	12.9	12.7	0.15
P.J. Washington	43	44	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.22	3	-1	4	14.7	13.0	1.70	13.1	12.6	0.49
Nick Richards	44	43	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.23	2	0	2	13.4	14.0	-0.59	13.3	12.5	0.76
Jalen McDaniels	73	72	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.40	-6	8	-14	13.9	13.4	0.49	12.7	13.2	-0.51
Mason Plumlee	64	65	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	0	2	14.2	13.1	1.11	12.5	13.3	-0.76
Kai Jones	66	64	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.23	-1	3	-4	13.0	14.7	-1.70	12.6	13.1	-0.49
Theo Maledon	57	57	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	0	2	13.2	14.2	-0.99	12.9	12.7	0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.52,0.45,0.56,0.72,0.74,0.85,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.87,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 106, CHI 116	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.39,0.52,0.65,0.69,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.83,0.69,0.79,0.95,0.99,1	92.6%
TOR 91, SAC 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.67,0.76,0.7,0.78,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.97,0.96,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.95,1	92.4%
MIL 94, NYK 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.48,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.74,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	92.1%