NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	104		Excitement	6.9 [539]		MVP	O.G. Anunoby (TOR): +30.3%
Toronto Raptors	112		Comeback	4.1 [313]		LVP	Fred VanVleet (TOR): -9.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Max Strus	0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2	0.10	0.09	-0.02	11	74%	0.28	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Kyle Lowry	0.14	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.04	-0.00	9	86%	0.23	4	-0.09	4	75%	0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	4	82%	0.15	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.03
Gabe Vincent	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	11	70%	0.16	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Nikola Jovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	8	65%	0.05	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Caleb Martin	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.03	-0.07	0.01	10	70%	0.10	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	8	62%	0.07	5	-0.14	5	100%	0.04
Jamal Cain	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.G. Anunoby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.17	0.14	0.01	18	76%	0.37	3	-0.07	6	83%	-0.01
Chris Boucher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.07	0.15	0.00	7	65%	0.25	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.01
Scottie Barnes	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.05	0.02	14	68%	0.16	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Christian Koloko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	9	67%	0.12	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Khem Birch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dalano Banton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	10	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	21	47%	-0.02	3	-0.08	7	86%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	30.2	14.5	29.3	1.7	34.2	135.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -11.9%

MIA -3.7%

TOR +39.8%

TOR +26.8%

MIA -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	14.7	15.9	14.4	111.8	117.9	113.4
season	15.1	14.7		111.9	114.0
opponent	14.5	14.6		112.2	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	13.5	16.0	14.3	14.7
TOR	15.5	14.8	14.6	19.1	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duncan Robinson	31	31	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.01	-4	-4	0	14.3	14.9	-0.60	14.1	16.8	-2.73
Dewayne Dedmon	33	32	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.01	-7	-1	-6	14.2	15.0	-0.83	15.6	16.1	-0.52
Nikola Jovic	45	49	-0.23	-0.28	0.05	-0.14	-3	-5	2	16.0	13.5	2.52	14.7	17.2	-2.42
Kyle Lowry	65	67	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.30	2	-10	12	15.4	13.2	2.10	17.0	13.3	3.71
Jamal Cain	12	11	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.06	-7	-1	-6	12.6	15.0	-2.45	17.2	15.7	1.44
Caleb Martin	75	77	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	-6	4	14.7	14.7	-0.00	15.7	16.7	-0.94
Jimmy Butler	73	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	-4	0	14.6	15.0	-0.42	16.4	14.1	2.29
Gabe Vincent	62	63	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.21	-8	0	-8	14.1	16.0	-1.87	16.1	15.4	0.71
Max Strus	69	70	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.25	-7	-1	-6	14.7	14.7	0.07	15.9	15.9	0.03

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
O.G. Anunoby	85	84	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.34	8	0	8	15.8	16.9	-1.11	15.0	11.9	3.13
Juancho Hernangomez	47	45	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.05	17	-9	26	15.1	16.7	-1.62	13.7	15.6	-1.91
Fred VanVleet	76	75	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.19	10	-2	12	16.3	14.2	2.12	14.7	14.8	-0.07
Chris Boucher	48	48	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.19	7	1	6	17.2	14.5	2.72	13.9	15.6	-1.66
Thaddeus Young	54	53	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.25	2	6	-4	16.3	15.4	0.91	14.9	14.4	0.47
Scottie Barnes	82	79	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.18	4	4	0	16.1	14.4	1.76	14.8	14.3	0.51
Christian Koloko	26	27	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.01	4	4	0	15.7	16.0	-0.29	13.6	15.2	-1.54
Khem Birch	15	13	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	6	-4	14.9	16.1	-1.23	16.2	14.5	1.67
Dalano Banton	42	41	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	0.12	-14	22	-36	14.3	17.2	-2.90	16.0	13.7	2.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.3,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.83,0.82,0.7,0.7,0.59,0.71,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.83,0.91,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 104, CHI 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.61,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.83,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.66,0.9,0.79,0.91,0.96,1	92.8%
SAS 132, WAS 138	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.27,0.3,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.66,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1	91.9%
CHI 89, ATL 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.31,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.68,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.73,0.86,0.95,1,0.99,1	91.8%