NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	117		Excitement	6.3 [583]		MVP	Pascal Siakam (TOR): +18.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	111		Comeback	5.3 [206]		LVP	Jrue Holiday (MIL): -24.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pascal Siakam	0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.18	0.10	0.05	-0.03	23	62%	0.27	4	-0.09	7	71%	0.01
OG Anunoby	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	-0.02	0.01	10	79%	0.17	3	-0.08	8	75%	-0.02
Gary Trent Jr.	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	17	58%	0.11	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Justin Champagnie	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.02	18	53%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	0.00	6	43%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Chris Boucher	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khem Birch	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Barnes	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	-0.02	-0.07	6	37%	0.01	4	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.00	0.00	8	75%	0.13	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	16	62%	0.12	4	-0.07	8	75%	0.00
Rodney Hood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	5	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.03	0.02	9	55%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jordan Nwora	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	15	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.03	7	64%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sandro Mamukelashvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	8	45%	-0.01	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Javonte Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24	-0.24	-0.17	-0.09	-0.01	15	44%	-0.04	8	-0.20	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	0.6	25.5	14.4	29.3	1.8	36.3	135.0
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +43.9%

MIL -4.8%

MIL -4.5%

TOR +13.9%

TOR +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	15.7	12.2	14.5	113.6	106.7	110.8
season	14.9	13.7		111.3	112.2
opponent	14.8	14.8		109.4	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.4	17.6	13.1	17.9	15.7
MIL	13.3	10.8	13.6	10.9	12.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Trent Jr.	68	67	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.22	14	-8	22	15.4	16.1	-0.70	12.1	12.3	-0.17
Pascal Siakam	90	92	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.27	11	-5	16	15.6	16.1	-0.45	11.9	14.2	-2.36
Justin Champagnie	22	25	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.05	16	-10	26	15.8	15.7	0.12	12.0	12.2	-0.27
Scottie Barnes	81	82	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.24	4	2	2	15.8	15.1	0.75	12.2	12.0	0.21
Fred VanVleet	84	85	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.26	0	6	-6	15.0	18.5	-3.49	12.1	12.6	-0.51
OG Anunoby	78	77	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.27	-3	9	-12	15.8	15.3	0.53	11.9	13.0	-1.08
Precious Achiuwa	34	32	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	3	0	17.8	14.6	3.20	12.0	12.2	-0.19
Khem Birch	28	29	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.20	-4	10	-14	14.6	16.1	-1.47	14.0	11.4	2.59
Chris Boucher	30	31	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.13	-11	17	-28	15.9	15.6	0.36	12.5	12.0	0.46

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMarcus Cousins	43	40	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.06	9	-15	24	12.0	12.2	-0.20	15.9	15.5	0.40
Javonte Smart	22	24	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.13	9	-15	24	14.4	11.6	2.79	16.3	15.5	0.80
Sandro Mamukelashvili	48	49	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.23	7	-13	20	12.7	11.7	0.97	15.3	16.0	-0.71
Jrue Holiday	82	80	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-6	6	12.2	12.0	0.15	14.9	18.2	-3.27
Rodney Hood	54	51	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.17	-2	-4	2	12.0	12.3	-0.26	16.4	15.0	1.45
Bobby Portis	46	49	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.23	-8	2	-10	12.2	12.1	0.06	16.1	15.3	0.77
Khris Middleton	74	74	-0.57	0.08	-0.65	-0.34	-8	2	-10	11.9	12.9	-1.04	16.0	14.8	1.19
Wesley Matthews	63	61	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.04	-21	15	-36	11.9	12.6	-0.74	15.2	16.3	-1.10
Jordan Nwora	88	87	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.20	-16	10	-26	11.9	13.7	-1.87	15.7	15.8	-0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.43,0.41,0.5,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.34,0.2,0.1,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 91, MIA 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.79,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0	93.2%
LAC 113, ORL 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.73,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.47,0.29,0.19,0.22,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	92.8%
NOP 115, GSW 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.33,0.32,0.48,0.5,0.38,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.04,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	92.5%