NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	115		Excitement	6.5 [533]		MVP	Nicolo Melli (NOP): +34.4%
Golden State Warriors	101		Comeback	4.2 [630]		LVP	Lonzo Ball (NOP): -12.3%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nicolo Melli	0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.22	0.12	0.01	8	125%	0.35	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.04	0.11	-0.00	17	68%	0.29	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Zion Williamson	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.05	0.03	20	61%	0.17	1	-0.02	6	17%	-0.06
Derrick Favors	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	4	67%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Josh Hart	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.03	9	42%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Brandon Ingram	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.07	0.02	-0.06	18	41%	0.03	3	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Jaxson Hayes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	12	37%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lonzo Ball	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juan Toscano-Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.12	0.10	-0.02	10	76%	0.26	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Ky Bowman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.03	-0.02	12	56%	0.13	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Damion Lee	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	-0.04	0.04	15	73%	0.10	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Eric Paschall	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	9	59%	0.05	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.02
Jordan Poole	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	14	61%	0.08	4	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Kevon Looney	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dragan Bender	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	8	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Alen Smailagic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.14	0.00	-0.05	16	24%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.7	25.4	14.0	23.2	2.5	26.6	120.7
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +35.5%

GSW -1.7%

NOP +8.0%

NOP +8.7%

GSW -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	GSW	NBA	NOP	GSW	NBA
this game	13.7	15.1	14.2	115.0	101.0	109.6
season	13.4	14.1		109.9	103.9
opponent	14.3	14.2		112.8	111.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	12.9	12.7	13.5	15.7	13.7
GSW	13.7	15.5	16.5	15.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zion Williamson	70	72	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.15	20	-6	26	12.7	15.9	-3.22	15.5	14.2	1.26
Jrue Holiday	81	81	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.08	21	-7	28	13.9	12.9	0.90	14.5	17.8	-3.30
Derrick Favors	53	55	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.02	13	1	12	12.7	14.7	-2.01	14.2	16.2	-1.96
Brandon Ingram	74	75	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.05	14	0	14	12.8	16.1	-3.24	14.4	17.3	-2.93
Lonzo Ball	57	59	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.00	8	6	2	12.7	15.0	-2.27	15.8	14.1	1.65
Nicolo Melli	45	43	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	9	-4	15.8	12.0	3.77	15.7	14.6	1.10
JJ Redick	39	38	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.13	0	14	-14	15.7	12.4	3.38	16.4	14.4	2.01
Josh Hart	55	52	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	14	-14	14.8	12.4	2.41	15.7	14.5	1.15
E'Twaun Moore	20	20	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.00	-6	20	-26	13.0	13.8	-0.85	14.5	15.3	-0.78
Jaxson Hayes	6	5	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.06	-5	19	-24	14.0	13.7	0.34	14.8	15.1	-0.34

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alen Smailagic	18	18	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.04	4	-18	22	14.8	15.2	-0.42	12.9	13.9	-0.96
Juan Toscano-Anderson	51	55	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.27	6	-20	26	15.9	14.3	1.64	15.2	11.9	3.30
Dragan Bender	39	40	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.21	1	-15	16	15.9	14.6	1.23	14.9	12.9	1.99
Kevon Looney	43	42	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.10	-11	-3	-8	14.3	15.7	-1.39	12.3	14.7	-2.36
Ky Bowman	64	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.11	-7	-7	0	15.4	14.6	0.88	14.0	13.0	1.05
Damion Lee	74	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.15	-8	-6	-2	14.5	17.0	-2.54	13.5	14.3	-0.80
Eric Paschall	68	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.03	-16	2	-18	14.6	16.2	-1.57	13.0	15.1	-2.15
Andrew Wiggins	74	72	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.12	-19	5	-24	15.2	14.8	0.37	12.9	15.6	-2.63
Jordan Poole	69	67	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.09	-20	6	-26	15.5	14.3	1.20	14.2	12.6	1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.33,0.32,0.48,0.5,0.38,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.04,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 91, MIA 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.79,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0	93.0%
BKN 121, NYK 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.75,0.64,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.18,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	92.9%
NJN 93, SEA 70	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.69,0.58,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.22,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.7%