NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	112		Excitement	3.8 [1029]		MVP	Max Strus (MIA): +8.4%
San Antonio Spurs	95		Comeback	1.7 [934]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (MIA): -10.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Max Strus	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.03	3	100%	0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Tucker	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.12	-0.00	0.04	10	74%	0.08	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.00	14	55%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Gabe Vincent	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.00	-0.05	7	57%	0.07	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.00	0.03	20	57%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	-0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	64%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.04	13	56%	0.03	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.00
Chris Silva	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Guy	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.00	-0.02	1	50%	0.01	6	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick White	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	-0.01	-0.00	11	85%	0.18	6	-0.12	4	100%	0.02
Tre Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.01	10	57%	0.06	0	0.00	8	75%	0.00
Joe Wieskamp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devontae Cacok	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.06	2	73%	0.00	0	0.00	7	57%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.03	2	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Drew Eubanks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	58%	-0.00	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.01
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	4	70%	0.01	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Devin Vassell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	9	35%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Joshua Primo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.17	-0.00	-0.10	13	14%	-0.07	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	12	28%	-0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Lonnie Walker IV	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.03	10	32%	-0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.3	27.5	14.4	29.2	1.8	29.2	129.0
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +47.0%

MIA +3.9%

SAS -6.8%

MIA +7.7%

SAS -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	14.8	14.9	14.5	114.3	99.0	110.8
season	14.9	13.9		112.0	111.3
opponent	14.6	14.9		111.0	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.6	14.9	14.8	14.0	14.8
SAS	16.5	13.9	15.2	14.3	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Herro	67	63	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.04	20	-3	23	13.8	16.9	-3.16	15.4	14.1	1.30
Bam Adebayo	62	59	0.50	-0.00	0.51	-0.23	25	-8	33	14.7	14.9	-0.27	15.9	13.4	2.55
Duncan Robinson	69	68	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.00	10	7	3	14.8	14.7	0.17	14.9	14.9	0.08
Gabe Vincent	50	49	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.09	7	10	-3	13.9	15.7	-1.83	16.1	13.7	2.46
P.J. Tucker	49	48	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.09	13	4	9	15.4	14.2	1.18	13.9	15.9	-2.04
Kyle Lowry	52	52	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	13	-9	15.8	13.6	2.24	13.5	16.6	-3.09
Max Strus	31	30	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.10	8	9	-1	14.5	14.9	-0.47	17.8	13.6	4.15
Dewayne Dedmon	29	31	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.08	7	10	-3	13.9	15.1	-1.25	16.1	14.4	1.74
Jimmy Butler	52	52	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.06	6	11	-5	15.7	13.8	1.87	13.4	16.7	-3.26
Kyle Guy	15	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	24	-31	15.3	14.7	0.66	12.5	15.4	-2.82
Chris Silva	14	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	25	-33	15.6	14.6	1.01	12.4	15.3	-2.93

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devontae Cacok	19	20	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-21	25	13.8	15.2	-1.34	13.7	15.0	-1.29
Joe Wieskamp	23	23	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.24	8	-25	33	14.0	15.2	-1.21	14.5	14.9	-0.39
Derrick White	44	45	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.10	2	-19	21	12.5	17.0	-4.55	16.4	13.4	2.96
Drew Eubanks	35	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.07	-7	-10	3	14.8	15.0	-0.14	14.3	15.0	-0.78
Lonnie Walker IV	53	55	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.18	-12	-5	-7	14.8	15.0	-0.24	14.0	15.7	-1.68
Juancho Hernangomez	45	46	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.15	-2	-15	13	13.8	15.9	-2.19	14.4	15.1	-0.77
Devin Vassell	45	43	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.00	-8	-9	1	15.3	14.5	0.78	16.0	13.8	2.22
Keldon Johnson	45	46	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.03	-11	-6	-5	15.8	14.1	1.66	15.9	13.8	2.10
Thaddeus Young	48	50	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.17	-18	1	-19	15.7	14.2	1.50	14.9	14.7	0.21
Joshua Primo	55	57	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.09	-19	2	-21	15.2	14.6	0.62	13.4	16.6	-3.20
Tre Jones	68	71	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	0.06	-22	5	-27	16.4	11.3	5.13	14.7	14.9	-0.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.22,0.26,0.23,0.3,0.24,0.16,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 100, DEN 76	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.28,0.36,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
CLE 114, DAL 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.36,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.27,0.24,0.13,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
GSW 108, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.16,0.18,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%