NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	4.7 [888]		MVP	Myles Turner (IND): +19.8%
Indiana Pacers	104		Comeback	1.2 [438]		LVP	Malcolm Brogdon (IND): -16.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0.17	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.20	0.01	0.03	11	83%	0.19	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0.14	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	-0.00	-0.04	18	68%	0.18	4	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	5	70%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omer Yurtseven	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	8	75%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.01	16	55%	0.12	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	9	67%	0.09	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Tucker	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.04	4	36%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Max Strus	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Myles Turner	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.03	-0.03	11	74%	0.20	1	-0.00	5	60%	0.00
Caris LeVert	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.13	0.00	0.07	16	63%	0.09	1	-0.02	11	91%	0.02
Brad Wanamaker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duarte	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	15	45%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Oshae Brissett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	-0.03	8	70%	0.08	5	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Kelan Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	7	21%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.04	0.01	14	41%	-0.07	4	-0.09	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.4	28.6	15.4	23.5	1.7	45.0	141.0
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +50.6%

MIA +0.7%

IND -2.6%

MIA +4.3%

IND -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	16.4	15.6	14.5	125.6	115.6	110.8
season	14.9	14.4		112.0	111.4
opponent	14.7	14.9		115.0	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.7	16.0	16.6	18.5	16.4
IND	16.7	14.0	17.7	14.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	72	73	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.17	7	2	5	16.6	15.8	0.72	15.6	15.6	-0.07
Gabe Vincent	51	51	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	6	-3	16.9	15.8	1.09	15.5	15.7	-0.27
Duncan Robinson	54	55	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.05	10	-1	11	15.6	17.7	-2.09	16.6	14.0	2.55
Caleb Martin	34	35	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.09	8	1	7	15.3	17.1	-1.75	15.0	16.0	-1.01
Dewayne Dedmon	43	43	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.02	11	-2	13	15.7	17.0	-1.28	15.8	15.4	0.34
P.J. Tucker	57	56	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.17	4	5	-1	17.0	15.5	1.51	15.7	15.4	0.33
Omer Yurtseven	33	33	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.21	1	8	-7	18.1	15.4	2.65	16.5	15.1	1.41
Tyler Herro	64	63	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.23	-2	11	-13	16.9	15.3	1.55	15.3	16.2	-0.90
Max Strus	28	27	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.02	6	3	3	16.0	16.6	-0.65	15.0	15.8	-0.84
Udonis Haslem	14	14	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	12	-15	14.5	16.8	-2.26	12.9	16.1	-3.15

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Wanamaker	7	8	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-9	9	15.9	15.6	0.29	18.2	16.2	2.02
Torrey Craig	7	6	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.10	-7	-2	-5	20.9	15.1	5.71	15.5	16.5	-0.98
Jeremy Lamb	22	20	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-5	1	18.8	14.6	4.21	14.8	16.9	-2.07
Kelan Martin	30	28	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.02	-8	-1	-7	18.2	14.3	3.97	14.9	17.1	-2.20
Domantas Sabonis	72	73	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.29	1	-10	11	14.2	20.9	-6.69	16.4	16.6	-0.29
Oshae Brissett	40	38	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.03	-8	-1	-7	17.2	14.3	2.85	15.7	17.0	-1.30
Malcolm Brogdon	73	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	0	-9	9	14.4	20.6	-6.16	16.5	16.1	0.33
Myles Turner	61	63	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-5	1	15.5	15.7	-0.20	17.0	15.0	2.02
Chris Duarte	68	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.23	-5	-4	-1	14.6	18.8	-4.21	16.9	14.8	2.07
Caris LeVert	70	69	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	1	-11	15.6	15.4	0.24	16.8	15.3	1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.3,0.32,0.42,0.28,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.2,0.14,0.21,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 114, ORL 90	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.26,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.21,0.19,0.11,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%
SAS 110, LAL 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.3%
NJN 104, CHA 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.3%