NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	110		Excitement	4.5 [906]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +16.7%
Los Angeles Lakers	82		Comeback	1.1 [404]		LVP	Robert Horry (LAL): -9.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.04	-0.02	25	65%	0.21	3	-0.04	7	71%	-0.01
Malik Rose	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.03	5	80%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	62%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Kevin Willis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.00	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Stephen Jackson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	19	56%	0.06	3	-0.07	10	70%	-0.01
Speedy Claxton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.03	0.01	21	60%	0.09	1	-0.02	10	50%	-0.07
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.08	5	20%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.00	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	12	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	6	46%	-0.03	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	-0.03	-0.05	19	50%	0.07	7	-0.16	2	0%	-0.04
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	6	17%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	3.8	29.2	17.7	29.2	4.4	30.4	141.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +21.0%

SAS +10.4%

SAS +7.1%

SAS +10.9%

SAS +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	16.9	15.7	15.5	126.4	91.1	101.6
season	15.7	15.4		102.5	105.0
opponent	15.1	15.4		102.8	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.7	17.1	17.9	18.0	16.9
LAL	15.3	16.4	17.2	13.9	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	75	78	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.23	25	3	22	16.5	19.3	-2.85	16.2	12.5	3.68
Tony Parker	69	72	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.21	22	6	16	17.1	16.1	1.03	16.6	12.1	4.47
Stephen Jackson	57	60	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.00	14	14	0	16.9	16.8	0.16	17.1	12.9	4.23
Manu Ginobili	47	48	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.24	21	7	14	17.4	16.2	1.20	15.4	16.0	-0.63
Bruce Bowen	60	62	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.22	15	13	2	16.2	18.4	-2.17	15.7	15.6	0.12
Kevin Willis	17	15	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.28	15	13	2	16.9	16.9	0.08	16.2	15.6	0.61
David Robinson	40	42	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.04	4	24	-20	17.0	16.7	0.33	17.5	14.1	3.40
Danny Ferry	12	13	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.09	7	21	-14	19.6	16.4	3.14	12.0	16.3	-4.31
Malik Rose	30	32	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.07	5	23	-18	16.5	17.1	-0.57	13.4	17.0	-3.59
Speedy Claxton	18	18	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.11	6	22	-16	16.1	17.1	-1.03	12.1	16.6	-4.47
Steven Smith	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	25	-22	18.0	16.8	1.20	8.4	16.1	-7.72
Steve Kerr	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	25	-22	18.0	16.8	1.20	8.4	16.1	-7.72

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Samaki Walker	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-25	22	8.4	16.1	-7.72	18.0	16.8	1.20
Kareem Rush	12	13	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.23	-8	-20	12	10.1	16.6	-6.47	17.2	16.8	0.33
Mark Madsen	16	16	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.19	-8	-20	12	10.4	16.8	-6.39	16.1	17.1	-0.99
Brian Shaw	42	40	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.17	-11	-17	6	15.7	15.6	0.09	16.4	17.2	-0.78
Jannero Pargo	39	39	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.47	-24	-4	-20	14.7	16.5	-1.80	16.8	17.0	-0.19
Slava Medvedenko	50	49	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.36	-21	-7	-14	15.2	16.3	-1.10	17.6	16.0	1.55
Derek Fisher	51	48	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.15	-4	-24	20	16.5	14.7	1.80	17.0	16.8	0.19
Shaquille O'Neal	67	65	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.21	-18	-10	-8	17.2	11.3	5.83	17.2	15.8	1.41
Kobe Bryant	82	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.18	-20	-8	-12	15.8	14.5	1.30	16.9	16.1	0.82
Devean George	43	40	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	-17	6	17.2	14.3	2.91	16.6	17.1	-0.55
Robert Horry	43	41	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.06	-12	-16	4	16.5	14.9	1.58	16.1	17.5	-1.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 115, SAC 89	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.1,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%
DAL 92, NYK 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.11,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%
SAS 97, VAN 79	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.6%