NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	7.4 [382]		MVP	Spencer Dinwiddie (WAS): +40.3%
Washington Wizards	103		Comeback	23.8 [62]		LVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): -16.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.05	0.14	-0.02	16	61%	0.28	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
P.J. Tucker	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.12	0.05	0.00	6	100%	0.20	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.12	0.10	0.03	0.01	19	62%	0.19	1	-0.06	9	78%	0.05
Duncan Robinson	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.00	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	12	50%	0.05	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.05
Caleb Martin	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Max Strus	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	12	29%	-0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.11	0.24	-0.05	11	73%	0.44	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.10	0.17	0.00	10	76%	0.32	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.17	0.17	-0.04	0.18	-0.03	5	37%	0.19	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.10
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	7	76%	0.12	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Deni Avdija	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	7	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Raul Neto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	53%	0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Corey Kispert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.07	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	0.00	6	33%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.12	0.02	17	55%	0.09	6	-0.25	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.3	30.6	14.6	26.9	2.7	36.7	140.3
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +40.7%

WAS +21.0%

WAS +9.7%

MIA -16.0%

MIA -5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	14.1	17.3	14.5	107.5	113.2	110.8
season	14.9	14.9		112.0	109.8
opponent	14.4	14.9		113.1	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.9	14.0	13.9	14.5	14.1
WAS	14.3	20.3	17.4	17.5	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duncan Robinson	37	38	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.08	8	-11	19	15.2	13.4	1.79	17.0	17.5	-0.48
Max Strus	48	45	0.10	-0.60	0.71	0.16	-2	-1	-1	13.5	14.7	-1.12	18.1	16.4	1.65
Caleb Martin	38	35	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-2	1	12.4	15.3	-2.86	17.7	17.0	0.75
Dewayne Dedmon	20	19	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	1	-5	11.6	14.8	-3.17	16.3	17.5	-1.18
Kyle Lowry	69	68	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.43	2	-5	7	14.4	13.3	1.07	17.4	16.7	0.75
P.J. Tucker	64	63	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.40	1	-4	5	14.4	13.3	1.08	17.8	16.0	1.76
Jimmy Butler	73	72	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.53	1	-4	5	13.9	14.8	-0.91	17.4	16.7	0.65
Bam Adebayo	56	57	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.52	-6	3	-9	15.4	12.0	3.42	16.1	19.3	-3.21
Tyler Herro	60	58	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.36	-14	11	-25	14.0	14.2	-0.10	17.0	17.7	-0.65

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Montrezl Harrell	53	53	0.98	-0.48	1.45	0.48	17	-14	31	15.6	19.6	-4.04	13.8	14.4	-0.59
Spencer Dinwiddie	60	62	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.52	1	2	-1	16.8	18.1	-1.28	13.5	15.4	-1.90
Bradley Beal	68	71	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.47	1	2	-1	17.4	16.8	0.63	14.3	13.4	0.95
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	51	52	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.55	-4	7	-11	17.6	16.8	0.76	14.7	13.4	1.29
Kyle Kuzma	56	56	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.53	-4	7	-11	17.4	17.1	0.32	14.7	13.2	1.49
Raul Neto	33	32	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.05	7	-4	11	17.8	16.9	0.89	15.6	13.3	2.25
Corey Kispert	36	37	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	-2	7	17.1	17.4	-0.28	12.7	15.0	-2.34
Deni Avdija	50	51	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.09	4	-1	5	18.1	16.3	1.79	13.3	15.1	-1.84
Aaron Holiday	22	23	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.12	-1	4	-5	17.7	17.1	0.57	13.5	14.3	-0.75
Daniel Gafford	26	28	-0.53	1.03	-1.57	-0.21	-11	14	-25	18.0	17.0	0.99	15.3	13.6	1.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.34,0.22,0.19,0.08,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.23,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.38,0.29,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.43,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 121, NYK 124	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.23,0.29,0.18,0.13,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.34,0.33,0.17,0.23,0.14,0.29,0.22,0.14,0.28,0.66,0.84,1	90.6%
POR 80, LAL 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.18,0.23,0.4,0.29,0.34,0.22,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.25,0.28,0.57,0.91,1	90.2%
NYK 87, CHA 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.11,0.08,0.19,0.22,0.32,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.19,0.06,0.23,0.72,1	89.9%