NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	121		Excitement	9.7 [107]		MVP	James Johnson (MIA): +37.8%
New York Knicks	124		Comeback	11.9 [50]		LVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): -11.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Johnson	0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.16,0.38,0.38	0.18	0.19	0.00	7	100%	0.48	1	-0.10	5	80%	0.01
Kendrick Nunn	0.20	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.12	0.09	0.02	15	67%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.12,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.07	0.12	-0.00	12	58%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	10	50%	0.11	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Meyers Leonard	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	3	87%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	75%	0.16	5	-0.15	6	83%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.03	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.11,0.11,0,-0.11	0.13	-0.06	0.19	15	61%	0.06	1	-0.17	11	82%	-0.02

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Julius Randle	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.16,0.18,0.33	0.33	0.04	0.29	0.01	21	54%	0.39	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.07
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.12	0.15	0.02	6	87%	0.29	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.07
RJ Barrett	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.19	0.19	0.19	0.08	0.08	10	77%	0.19	0	0.00	10	80%	-0.03
Kevin Knox II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.04	-0.00	8	85%	0.18	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Kadeem Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	7	67%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.05,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.16,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	16	50%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	11	45%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mitchell Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Damyean Dotson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	7	13%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.4	25.5	15.4	26.8	1.8	42.2	141.2
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -22.2%

NYK +17.6%

NYK +12.1%

NYK +39.8%

NYK +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	15.5	14.6	14.2	127.4	129.2	109.6
season	14.7	14.5		111.7	105.4
opponent	14.4	14.5		111.9	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.5	15.6	15.6	14.5	15.5
NYK	14.2	14.4	15.7	14.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duncan Robinson	53	55	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.05	6	-9	15	15.7	15.3	0.47	15.8	13.0	2.77
Derrick Jones Jr.	38	39	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.01	4	-7	11	15.4	15.6	-0.22	13.9	15.2	-1.29
Meyers Leonard	47	46	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	1	-5	16.5	14.6	1.86	14.9	14.4	0.49
James Johnson	41	43	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.28	-3	0	-3	14.9	16.0	-1.10	13.7	15.4	-1.66
Jimmy Butler	69	68	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.49	1	-4	5	15.5	15.6	-0.07	15.4	12.7	2.66
Bam Adebayo	73	74	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.40	-2	-1	-1	15.2	16.7	-1.56	15.1	13.1	1.94
Tyler Herro	44	45	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.07	-14	11	-25	16.2	14.9	1.31	13.1	16.0	-2.91
Kendrick Nunn	61	61	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.45	-1	-2	1	15.5	15.6	-0.19	15.4	13.3	2.17
Goran Dragic	49	49	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.45	-2	-1	-1	15.0	16.0	-1.00	13.2	16.2	-3.01

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	61	61	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.39	13	-10	23	15.7	12.8	2.93	15.6	15.4	0.18
Elfrid Payton	61	60	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.50	2	1	1	16.0	12.3	3.61	15.4	15.8	-0.39
Reggie Bullock	55	55	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.50	1	2	-1	15.7	13.3	2.39	15.6	15.4	0.26
RJ Barrett	80	78	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.43	2	1	1	15.1	12.1	3.01	15.2	17.1	-1.87
Julius Randle	65	64	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.51	-2	5	-7	15.8	12.2	3.56	15.0	16.6	-1.57
Kevin Knox II	40	41	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.11	4	-1	5	12.7	16.0	-3.32	15.9	15.2	0.66
Damyean Dotson	17	16	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	4	-5	13.5	14.9	-1.34	15.8	15.5	0.34
Kadeem Allen	35	35	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.09	1	2	-1	12.3	16.0	-3.61	15.8	15.4	0.39
Bobby Portis	36	35	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.10	1	2	-1	12.5	15.9	-3.42	16.1	15.2	0.89
Mitchell Robinson	30	30	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.01	-6	9	-15	12.5	15.6	-3.06	15.8	15.4	0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.23,0.29,0.18,0.13,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.34,0.33,0.17,0.23,0.14,0.29,0.22,0.14,0.28,0.66,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 95, ATL 103	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.13,0.19,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.45,0.57,0.73,1	91.8%
IND 88, SAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.37,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.13,0.15,0.24,0.23,0.14,0.15,0.4,0.19,0.46,0.69,0.74,1	91.6%
ORL 88, BOS 95	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.37,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.22,0.24,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.33,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.23,0.14,0.13,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.2,0.15,0.13,0.25,0.4,0.25,0.36,0.57,0.96,1	91.5%