NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	115		Excitement	5.3 [769]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +25.1%
Miami Heat	118		Comeback	1.3 [648]		LVP	Jordan Clarkson (UTA): -6.2%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Conley	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.05	11	78%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Royce O'Neale	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.04	0.00	7	83%	0.17	2	-0.05	4	50%	0.00
Bojan Bogdanovic	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.01	0.01	11	62%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Rudy Gobert	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	5	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Eric Paschall	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Hassan Whiteside	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donovan Mitchell	0.01	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.01	0.14	-0.04	0.09	28	60%	0.05	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Joe Ingles	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Clarkson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	0.00	0.03	9	39%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.19,0.25	0.25	0.13	0.11	-0.01	15	75%	0.30	3	-0.04	6	83%	0.05
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.15	0.03	0.00	11	83%	0.18	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.13	0.17	0.02	0.06	18	76%	0.19	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.03
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.01	6	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	5	27%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Markieff Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.03	12	61%	0.14	5	-0.17	4	75%	-0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	5	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	29.5	15.6	26.2	2.0	37.0	136.1
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.6%

MIA +9.7%

MIA +19.3%

UTA -17.6%

MIA +7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIA	NBA	UTA	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	16.1	14.5	125.0	129.7	110.8
season	14.8	14.9		115.1	112.0
opponent	14.9	14.7		107.6	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	16.0	14.8	15.7	15.1	15.4
MIA	16.7	17.3	16.4	14.3	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Royce O'Neale	61	61	0.20	-0.70	0.91	-0.30	17	-20	37	14.9	16.4	-1.52	16.9	14.4	2.48
Hassan Whiteside	33	37	0.18	-0.68	0.85	-0.32	17	-20	37	14.0	16.2	-2.20	17.8	14.9	2.93
Bojan Bogdanovic	64	66	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.43	16	-19	35	14.9	16.5	-1.66	16.4	15.2	1.24
Donovan Mitchell	69	70	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.45	12	-15	27	15.0	16.4	-1.41	16.4	15.0	1.37
Joe Ingles	51	51	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.18	-10	7	-17	14.6	16.4	-1.82	16.6	15.4	1.25
Mike Conley	65	61	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.42	-3	0	-3	15.9	14.1	1.80	14.9	18.6	-3.78
Eric Paschall	25	23	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.02	-17	14	-31	16.9	14.8	2.06	15.0	16.5	-1.53
Rudy Gobert	58	53	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.01	-20	17	-37	16.3	13.7	2.61	15.1	17.5	-2.36
Jordan Clarkson	34	33	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	0.07	-27	24	-51	16.8	14.6	2.24	15.1	16.7	-1.53

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Markieff Morris	35	38	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.06	20	-17	37	15.5	16.5	-0.95	17.2	14.1	3.07
Kyle Lowry	70	71	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.32	9	-6	15	15.3	18.8	-3.46	16.0	13.3	2.71
Caleb Martin	36	37	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.17	11	-8	19	14.7	17.0	-2.28	15.5	15.3	0.13
Bam Adebayo	69	70	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	-1	5	15.6	17.5	-1.91	15.5	15.0	0.50
Tyler Herro	64	65	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.28	-1	4	-5	16.5	15.0	1.51	14.9	16.6	-1.72
Jimmy Butler	69	69	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.52	-12	15	-27	16.6	14.6	1.99	14.7	17.3	-2.62
Dewayne Dedmon	22	22	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	4	-5	17.5	15.6	1.91	15.0	15.5	-0.50
Duncan Robinson	43	42	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.11	-6	9	-15	17.0	15.3	1.62	15.4	15.4	0.00
P.J. Tucker	47	46	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.18	-9	12	-21	16.7	15.5	1.20	14.6	16.2	-1.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.5,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.65,0.72,0.78,0.75,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.61,0.57,0.67,0.75,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 81, ATL 91	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.82,0.73,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.78,0.87,0.85,0.91,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
VAN 98, LAL 116	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.71,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.95,0.91,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
MIN 108, MEM 120	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.78,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.63,0.69,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.67,0.72,0.81,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%