NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	101		Excitement	3.9 [917]		MVP	Kendrick Nunn (MIA): +22.4%
Miami Heat	106		Comeback	1.0 [955]		LVP	Thaddeus Young (CHI): -6.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Coby White	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.05	18	74%	0.22	6	-0.10	6	100%	0.02
Denzel Valentine	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09	0.04	0.07	0.02	7	64%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.11	0.00	0.06	18	67%	0.15	2	-0.09	3	67%	-0.00
Daniel Theis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	64%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Ryan Arcidiacono	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lauri Markkanen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.04	6	75%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tomas Satoransky	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	3	25%	-0.04	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Patrick Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	6	33%	-0.02	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	7	14%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kendrick Nunn	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22	0.22	0.15	0.08	0.01	14	69%	0.22	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.05	-0.01	13	61%	0.14	1	-0.00	7	86%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	-0.04	0.09	-0.06	11	59%	0.19	6	-0.08	12	83%	0.02
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.12	-0.01	0.03	17	66%	0.11	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	7	29%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	7	14%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.8	24.3	15.4	27.5	2.4	36.3	132.4
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +11.5%

MIA +14.2%

MIA +3.6%

MIA +19.8%

MIA +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	14.5	15.5	14.4	105.2	110.4	111.3
season	14.5	14.6		109.9	109.3
opponent	14.9	14.3		110.4	111.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.0	17.6	13.5	11.5	14.5
MIA	16.0	15.1	15.9	15.1	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Denzel Valentine	37	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.33	7	-12	19	13.0	15.4	-2.33	16.2	15.1	1.13
Tomas Satoransky	24	22	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-1	-3	16.0	13.9	2.11	18.1	14.8	3.37
Lauri Markkanen	42	43	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.43	10	-15	25	12.9	15.7	-2.85	16.3	15.0	1.29
Ryan Arcidiacono	15	15	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	0	-5	15.1	14.3	0.72	18.4	15.0	3.39
Daniel Theis	52	54	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	0	-5	14.9	14.0	0.89	15.2	16.0	-0.81
Thaddeus Young	41	39	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-3	1	15.0	14.1	0.90	16.8	14.7	2.07
Patrick Williams	42	43	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.00	-9	4	-13	16.0	13.3	2.66	14.9	16.1	-1.23
Coby White	78	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	-1	-3	14.2	15.7	-1.56	14.8	19.1	-4.27
Nikola Vucevic	80	81	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.36	-2	-3	1	14.4	14.6	-0.12	15.0	18.5	-3.55
Garrett Temple	69	68	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	6	-17	14.3	14.7	-0.39	14.8	17.4	-2.56

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	73	74	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.30	9	-4	13	14.8	17.8	-2.95	14.4	14.6	-0.23
Trevor Ariza	63	62	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-8	21	14.5	17.5	-3.01	14.5	14.4	0.03
Duncan Robinson	76	76	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.11	13	-8	21	15.6	15.4	0.12	14.7	13.5	1.21
Kendrick Nunn	73	72	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.31	4	1	3	15.3	16.3	-0.95	14.2	15.1	-0.89
Bam Adebayo	73	73	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.37	0	5	-5	14.9	17.6	-2.72	14.2	15.3	-1.11
Dewayne Dedmon	23	23	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.01	5	0	5	17.6	14.9	2.72	15.3	14.2	1.11
Max Strus	21	20	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.15	-3	8	-11	15.8	15.5	0.28	15.0	14.3	0.75
Andre Iguodala	36	37	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.29	-10	15	-25	16.4	15.0	1.31	13.7	14.9	-1.23
Gabe Vincent	43	44	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.19	-9	14	-23	17.6	13.8	3.78	14.6	14.3	0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.86,0.93,0.9,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.81,0.69,0.76,0.86,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 111, BKN 116	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.88,0.87,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.99,0.99,1,1	95.1%
CLE 79, MIA 83	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.92,1	94.7%
MIL 83, ATL 93	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.88,0.86,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.87,0.77,0.74,0.88,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.98,1,1	94.6%