NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	7.0 [399]		MVP	Duncan Robinson (MIA): +22.4%
Indiana Pacers	87		Comeback	8.0 [177]		LVP	Trevor Ariza (MIA): -13.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0.22	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.12	0.11	0.01	12	83%	0.29	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.08	-0.00	13	55%	0.15	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Jimmy Butler	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.07	0.01	0.06	0.01	14	51%	0.13	2	-0.06	7	86%	-0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	10	50%	0.09	2	-0.06	12	67%	-0.02
Nemanja Bjelica	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.02	0.03	10	60%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	6	21%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Andre Iguodala	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	7	12%	-0.11	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.01	0.00	6	117%	0.23	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Goga Bitadze	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.05	-0.01	6	58%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.01	12	42%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	0.09	-0.08	0.06	9	83%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Edmond Sumner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	11	23%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.05	-0.06	12	27%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	8	50%	-0.03	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Caris LeVert	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.02	12	47%	-0.04	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.0	28.3	15.4	28.5	2.3	35.1	134.8
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.3%

MIA +7.7%

MIA +2.0%

MIA +8.5%

MIA +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	15.7	14.9	14.4	97.9	92.6	111.3
season	14.6	13.6		109.3	111.5
opponent	14.4	14.9		111.2	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	15.3	16.5	15.7	15.7
IND	15.4	14.7	14.2	15.6	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	71	71	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.23	16	-11	27	14.5	19.4	-4.96	15.1	14.4	0.68
Duncan Robinson	67	67	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.12	17	-12	29	14.9	17.6	-2.67	15.4	13.9	1.48
Tyler Herro	63	63	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.52	3	2	1	15.4	16.2	-0.75	14.9	15.1	-0.27
Jimmy Butler	73	73	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.38	6	-1	7	15.2	17.5	-2.36	15.1	14.5	0.61
Andre Iguodala	44	45	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.43	3	2	1	15.9	15.5	0.32	14.2	15.7	-1.52
Nemanja Bjelica	10	10	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.01	2	3	-1	16.4	15.6	0.79	15.4	14.9	0.51
Trevor Ariza	52	50	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.06	-1	6	-7	15.1	16.4	-1.33	15.8	14.0	1.87
Gabe Vincent	32	32	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	9	-13	17.3	14.8	2.51	14.4	15.2	-0.87
Goran Dragic	45	46	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.11	-4	9	-13	17.4	14.1	3.23	14.5	15.4	-0.96
Precious Achiuwa	13	13	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.11	-13	18	-31	21.8	14.7	7.05	13.7	15.1	-1.46

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goga Bitadze	21	21	0.24	-0.74	0.97	0.03	7	-12	19	13.0	15.5	-2.57	15.9	15.6	0.21
Aaron Holiday	28	27	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-7	9	13.2	15.7	-2.42	16.1	15.5	0.64
Doug McDermott	43	43	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.29	2	-7	9	14.4	15.4	-1.06	15.8	15.6	0.23
Myles Turner	56	56	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-1	-3	14.6	15.5	-0.88	15.6	15.8	-0.12
Malcolm Brogdon	61	61	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.25	-3	-2	-1	15.6	13.7	1.97	15.5	16.1	-0.66
T.J. McConnell	46	47	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.33	-4	-1	-3	15.1	14.8	0.36	17.0	14.3	2.70
Caris LeVert	64	64	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.27	-8	3	-11	15.5	13.8	1.73	15.2	16.6	-1.38
Domantas Sabonis	69	69	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.43	-11	6	-17	15.9	12.4	3.47	15.2	17.1	-1.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.75,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.65,0.51,0.59,0.69,0.85,0.81,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.71,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.63,0.53,0.55,0.27,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 112, CLE 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.63,0.57,0.49,0.56,0.65,0.6,0.59,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.66,0.7,0.6,0.5,0.55,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.59,0.68,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.31,0.05,0.05,0,0	91.9%
WAS 77, NOH 70	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.77,0.72,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.66,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.34,0.19,0.15,0.04,0.08,0	91.7%
PHX 104, MIL 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.69,0.59,0.61,0.75,0.79,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.73,0.77,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.78,0.66,0.71,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.27,0.14,0.08,0.05,0,0	91.6%