NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	112		Excitement	6.8 [422]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +70.4%
Cleveland Cavaliers	105		Comeback	3.7 [366]		LVP	Jacque Vaughn (SAS): -9.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.70	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.47,0.47,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.7	0.42	0.31	0.02	20	94%	0.72	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.19,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.12	0.21	0.00	4	125%	0.33	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.05	0.00	4	109%	0.22	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.03
Robert Horry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.04	0.00	4	64%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Fabricio Oberto	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	8	40%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0	-0.02	0.01	0.00	21	45%	0.03	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.02
Damon Stoudamire	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	8	12%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.09	0.13	-0.04	31	57%	0.43	3	-0.17	7	57%	-0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.09	0.12	-0.00	3	100%	0.21	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.16	0.03	0.02	19	67%	0.17	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	64%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.03	0.03	6	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwayne Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Ira Newble	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.8	32.0	14.8	26.2	2.5	31.2	133.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +22.8%

SAS +11.9%

CLE -8.4%

SAS +18.8%

SAS +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CLE	NBA	SAS	CLE	NBA
this game	16.4	16.3	15.4	127.3	119.3	105.7
season	16.5	16.4		104.7	104.0
opponent	15.2	15.3		104.1	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.1	15.2	16.7	17.9	16.4
CLE	13.9	16.1	17.6	18.1	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	72	71	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.29	21	-14	35	16.6	15.7	0.82	16.2	16.6	-0.35
Ime Udoka	41	43	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.24	17	-10	27	15.6	17.1	-1.56	17.5	15.2	2.27
Manu Ginobili	74	74	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.34	12	-5	17	16.8	14.6	2.20	16.1	17.3	-1.16
Michael Finley	46	45	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.31	12	-5	17	16.7	16.1	0.62	16.8	15.8	0.96
Bruce Bowen	67	67	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.35	8	-1	9	16.6	15.7	0.93	16.0	17.3	-1.35
Robert Horry	29	30	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.04	2	5	-3	16.2	16.5	-0.27	16.7	16.1	0.60
Damon Stoudamire	34	34	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.06	-3	10	-13	15.8	16.8	-1.07	18.0	15.2	2.76
Jacque Vaughn	35	34	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.05	-9	16	-25	16.2	16.5	-0.32	14.7	17.3	-2.61
Fabricio Oberto	42	42	-0.74	1.24	-1.98	-0.01	-25	32	-57	16.5	16.3	0.15	15.2	17.3	-2.09

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ira Newble	31	31	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.00	4	-11	15	15.7	16.6	-0.92	16.8	16.2	0.60
Dwayne Jones	15	14	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.05	0	-7	7	18.7	15.8	2.84	12.8	17.1	-4.32
Drew Gooden	59	58	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-3	-1	15.2	18.6	-3.35	16.6	16.0	0.59
Devin Brown	51	50	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.01	-7	0	-7	16.5	16.1	0.39	15.0	18.3	-3.29
Donyell Marshall	42	42	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-6	5	17.7	15.0	2.65	16.6	16.3	0.33
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	47	49	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.32	-2	-5	3	16.1	16.6	-0.48	17.9	14.6	3.29
LeBron James	78	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.33	-2	-5	3	16.1	18.2	-2.14	16.8	13.1	3.69
Larry Hughes	70	70	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.23	-13	6	-19	16.3	16.4	-0.17	16.4	16.7	-0.31
Damon Jones	47	47	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.35	-10	3	-13	16.6	16.0	0.62	16.3	16.6	-0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.63,0.57,0.49,0.56,0.65,0.6,0.59,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.66,0.7,0.6,0.5,0.55,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.59,0.68,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.31,0.05,0.05,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 109, NJN 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.77,0.73,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.5,0.51,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.74,0.79,0.66,0.74,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.61,0.25,0.07,0.06,0.05,0	92.6%
POR 96, DAL 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.48,0.4,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.31,0.28,0.06,0.01,0	92.0%
DET 84, CLE 74	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.56,0.7,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.74,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.53,0.28,0.19,0.11,0.03,0,0	91.5%