NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	118		Excitement	8.7 [165]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +48.0%
Chicago Bulls	112		Comeback	3.3 [450]		LVP	Zach LaVine (CHI): -17.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.48	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.21,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.4,0.4,0.48	0.20	0.28	0.00	28	64%	0.51	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.07
Jamal Murray	0.27	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.1,0.1,0.27,0.27	0.10	0.17	0.00	14	75%	0.40	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.01
Michael Porter Jr.	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.13	0.01	0.03	10	81%	0.14	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Monte Morris	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	7	50%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	13	48%	0.08	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.03
Zeke Nnaji	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlatko Cancar	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.01	6	62%	0.03	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
PJ Dozier	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	4	36%	-0.04	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.13

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Coby White	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.00	0.13	-0.02	17	53%	0.20	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.02,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.07	0.00	9	67%	0.22	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	11	52%	0.08	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Ryan Arcidiacono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	83%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Luke Kornet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	8	53%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	57%	0.05	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.00
Tomas Satoransky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Denzel Valentine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	0.01	15	43%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach LaVine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.16,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.13	0.01	20	50%	-0.05	4	-0.12	6	67%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.4	28.5	15.4	25.3	1.6	34.4	130.0
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +53.7%

DEN +9.4%

CHI -10.6%

CHI -2.3%

CHI -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHI	NBA	DEN	CHI	NBA
this game	15.1	14.0	14.4	118.0	114.3	111.3
season	15.0	14.5		116.0	109.9
opponent	14.3	14.4		111.1	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.8	16.2	13.4	17.5	15.1
CHI	14.4	13.1	13.8	14.6	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Barton	76	73	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.53	9	-3	12	15.2	14.8	0.39	13.5	15.3	-1.73
Nikola Jokic	79	77	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.42	12	-6	18	15.5	13.4	2.16	13.6	15.4	-1.83
Monte Morris	69	68	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.42	10	-4	14	15.7	13.6	2.09	13.7	14.6	-0.88
Michael Porter Jr.	71	69	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.50	7	-1	8	15.7	13.6	2.07	13.8	14.4	-0.55
Jamal Murray	76	74	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	-9	24	14.7	16.4	-1.69	13.9	14.4	-0.51
PJ Dozier	38	38	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.13	0	6	-6	15.1	15.1	-0.02	14.5	13.7	0.79
Isaiah Hartenstein	19	19	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.13	-2	8	-10	13.4	15.5	-2.13	16.5	13.4	3.08
Zeke Nnaji	30	29	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.13	-5	11	-16	13.5	15.8	-2.27	14.5	13.8	0.70
Vlatko Cancar	42	43	-0.41	0.91	-1.31	0.06	-16	22	-38	14.6	15.4	-0.77	14.5	13.6	0.89

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Kornet	24	23	0.56	-1.06	1.62	0.09	16	-22	38	12.9	14.4	-1.48	15.5	15.0	0.56
Ryan Arcidiacono	18	18	0.38	-0.88	1.26	0.15	8	-14	22	14.6	13.8	0.76	16.8	14.7	2.06
Denzel Valentine	48	49	0.26	-0.76	1.03	-0.06	11	-17	28	14.6	13.4	1.24	15.5	14.7	0.78
Tomas Satoransky	42	42	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-7	8	13.6	14.3	-0.73	15.0	15.2	-0.24
Thaddeus Young	60	61	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.28	4	-10	14	13.2	15.2	-1.91	15.5	14.4	1.07
Coby White	74	77	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.22	-4	-2	-2	14.4	12.8	1.53	15.1	14.9	0.23
Wendell Carter Jr.	44	46	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	6	-18	14.7	13.4	1.30	14.8	15.3	-0.49
Garrett Temple	49	51	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.35	-11	5	-16	12.9	15.1	-2.18	15.3	14.9	0.42
Zach LaVine	67	68	-0.93	0.43	-1.36	-0.35	-20	14	-34	13.6	14.9	-1.38	14.5	16.3	-1.84
Patrick Williams	64	65	-1.02	0.52	-1.54	-0.35	-23	17	-40	15.1	11.9	3.18	14.4	16.3	-1.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.33,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.26,0.3,0.28,0.2,0.23,0.24,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.44,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.69,0.63,0.45,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 102, HOU 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.18,0.21,0.12,0.11,0.17,0.19,0.35,0.26,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.24,0.15,0	92.4%
CLE 89, NYK 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.21,0.27,0.37,0.42,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.19,0.2,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.61,0.79,0.68,0.27,0	90.9%
MEM 94, MIN 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.18,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.21,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.1,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.24,0.4,0.4,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.52,0.37,0.41,0.53,0.66,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.09,0	90.4%