NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	102		Excitement	8.6 [131]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (DEN): +23.0%
Houston Rockets	100		Comeback	3.0 [194]		LVP	Cuttino Mobley (HOU): -15.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.23	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.23,0.23	0.11	0.14	0.02	15	63%	0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.23,0.23,0.13,0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.02	21	60%	0.26	3	-0.16	1	100%	0.00
James Posey	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.05	0.01	0.05	0.01	7	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	10	64%	0.10	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
George McCloud	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Robert Pack	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	5	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Keon Clark	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	5	58%	0.01	3	-0.12	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.01	0.01	17	39%	-0.12	1	-0.03	10	50%	-0.07

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.08	0.00	8	67%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Francis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	19	65%	0.14	5	-0.12	2	100%	0.02
Maurice Taylor	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	15	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	80%	0.05	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	10	30%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bullard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	7	21%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	7	29%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.16	-0.16	0.00	-0.15	0.01	16	50%	-0.16	0	0.00	8	75%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	1.8	25.4	15.7	25.2	1.8	30.1	122.4
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +76.8%

HOU -9.0%

HOU -12.9%

HOU -8.3%

DEN +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	13.7	17.6	15.5	110.9	108.7	100.9
season	15.2	16.3		101.4	104.6
opponent	14.9	15.2		102.1	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.9	13.6	13.0	15.7	13.7
HOU	15.4	19.8	17.0	18.6	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	64	64	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.65	1	1	0	14.0	13.0	0.96	17.6	17.6	-0.01
James Posey	49	48	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.37	9	-7	16	13.4	14.0	-0.59	16.7	18.5	-1.77
Voshon Lenard	71	72	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.65	-1	3	-4	14.0	12.7	1.35	18.0	16.2	1.72
Nick Van Exel	82	81	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.42	2	0	2	13.8	13.1	0.68	17.3	20.0	-2.73
Antonio McDyess	82	82	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.37	3	-1	4	13.8	12.8	1.02	17.3	20.2	-2.92
Robert Pack	31	31	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.19	3	-1	4	12.8	14.2	-1.36	17.6	17.6	-0.03
George McCloud	43	44	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.07	-7	9	-16	14.0	13.4	0.59	18.5	16.7	1.77
Keon Clark	38	38	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.14	0	2	-2	13.0	14.2	-1.25	18.3	17.1	1.18

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shandon Anderson	45	45	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.05	4	-6	10	16.4	18.7	-2.34	13.0	14.4	-1.34
Hakeem Olajuwon	40	40	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-4	6	16.7	18.3	-1.59	13.4	13.9	-0.45
Maurice Taylor	55	56	0.05	-0.55	0.61	0.05	0	-2	2	16.3	19.5	-3.25	13.1	14.7	-1.67
Kelvin Cato	12	12	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.07	0	-2	2	20.2	17.2	3.05	13.9	13.7	0.24
Moochie Norris	27	27	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	1	-4	19.0	17.0	1.93	14.3	13.4	0.89
Cuttino Mobley	71	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.52	6	-8	14	18.2	15.7	2.44	13.9	13.0	0.85
Steve Francis	77	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-1	0	17.2	19.7	-2.47	13.5	14.7	-1.26
Matt Bullard	37	36	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.49	-2	0	-2	19.5	16.3	3.25	14.7	13.1	1.67
Kenny Thomas	52	52	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.45	-4	2	-6	18.3	16.7	1.59	13.9	13.4	0.45
Walt Williams	44	45	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.36	-12	10	-22	17.1	18.1	-1.02	14.0	13.4	0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.18,0.21,0.12,0.11,0.17,0.19,0.35,0.26,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.24,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 94, ORL 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.19,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.33,0.08,0	92.0%
LAL 104, SEA 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.25,0.17,0.15,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.14,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.29,0.33,0.09,0	91.4%
SAC 92, DEN 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.24,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.33,0.46,0.23,0.26,0	91.1%