NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	94		Excitement	6.7 [486]		MVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): +29.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	90		Comeback	2.8 [451]		LVP	Ricky Rubio (MIN): -14.8%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0.29	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.06,0.01,0.08,0.18,0.29,0.29	0.08	0.21	-0.00	20	55%	0.32	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.02
Mike Miller	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.08	-0.00	4	62%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.04	0.10	-0.02	14	37%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Ed Davis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	55%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Nick Calathes	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	70%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	11	46%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.02
Courtney Lee	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.06	-0.07	0.02	7	76%	0.03	2	-0.05	7	71%	0.01
Marc Gasol	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	10	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.2,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.04	-0.01	20	68%	0.23	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.09	0.00	9	67%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.02	11	55%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alexey Shved	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.02	4	70%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	17	41%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	5	30%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	7	37%	-0.05	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	1.8	29.0	15.4	21.6	2.6	31.3	124.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +26.7%

MEM +9.5%

MEM +14.2%

MIN -1.7%

MEM +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	MIN	NBA	MEM	MIN	NBA
this game	17.0	14.3	15.1	102.2	97.8	105.2
season	16.4	14.6		104.5	107.3
opponent	14.5	15.2		104.7	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	14.9	17.5	18.7	17.4	17.0
MIN	12.8	14.6	14.0	16.1	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	64	64	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.40	12	-8	20	17.0	17.1	-0.14	14.3	14.3	-0.04
Marc Gasol	78	78	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.34	13	-9	22	16.7	18.7	-2.01	14.2	14.6	-0.33
Zach Randolph	76	75	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.50	7	-3	10	17.4	15.2	2.21	14.4	13.6	0.79
Courtney Lee	66	67	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.29	2	2	0	16.6	18.0	-1.43	13.7	16.0	-2.34
Mike Conley	56	55	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.03	9	-5	14	17.9	15.6	2.25	15.1	13.1	1.98
Mike Miller	45	44	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.43	-8	12	-20	18.0	16.1	1.85	15.6	13.1	2.44
James Johnson	25	25	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	4	-4	16.4	17.2	-0.78	13.9	14.4	-0.57
Ed Davis	26	27	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.04	-6	10	-16	16.7	17.1	-0.44	14.3	14.3	0.06
Nick Calathes	24	25	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.00	-9	13	-22	15.1	17.7	-2.55	12.1	15.1	-2.98

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dante Cunningham	30	31	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.00	5	-9	14	16.5	13.2	3.22	19.6	15.7	3.88
Ricky Rubio	53	53	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.12	8	-12	20	13.5	15.4	-1.94	17.5	16.3	1.18
Chase Budinger	32	31	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-1	-2	16.0	13.4	2.57	18.5	16.3	2.22
Alexey Shved	11	10	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	2	-8	17.4	13.9	3.49	16.8	17.0	-0.24
Kevin Love	72	73	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.38	5	-9	14	13.4	17.3	-3.91	16.9	17.6	-0.72
Corey Brewer	65	67	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.38	2	-6	8	13.7	15.6	-1.89	17.0	17.2	-0.20
Gorgui Dieng	25	24	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	10	-24	16.0	13.6	2.40	16.1	17.3	-1.20
Kevin Martin	76	76	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.46	-1	-3	2	13.6	17.5	-3.88	16.5	19.5	-3.01
Ronny Turiaf	57	56	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.44	-4	0	-4	13.5	15.7	-2.20	16.2	18.3	-2.17
Jose Juan Barea	39	39	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.27	-12	8	-20	15.4	13.5	1.94	16.3	17.5	-1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.18,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.21,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.1,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.24,0.4,0.4,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.52,0.37,0.41,0.53,0.66,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 110, ORL 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.31,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.27,0.37,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.59,0.46,0.32,0.55,0.55,0.26,0	92.1%
LAL 104, SEA 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.25,0.17,0.15,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.14,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.29,0.33,0.09,0	91.5%
DEN 102, HOU 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.18,0.21,0.12,0.11,0.17,0.19,0.35,0.26,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.24,0.15,0	90.9%