NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	114		Excitement	7.3 [359]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (SAS): +37.0%
San Antonio Spurs	117		Comeback	1.8 [379]		LVP	Josh Hart (NOP): -11.2%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Ingram	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.12	0.11	-0.05	-0.06	23	57%	0.07	1	0.04	5	100%	0.04
Eric Bledsoe	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.02	-0.02	13	59%	0.13	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Willy Hernangomez	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	8	60%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Zion Williamson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	15	56%	0.14	4	-0.09	11	64%	-0.07
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	150%	0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Nicolo Melli	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	58%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Lonzo Ball	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11	0.01	-0.08	0.03	17	46%	-0.07	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Josh Hart	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	8	11%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.37	0.37	0.19	0.18	0.00	18	67%	0.39	1	-0.02	12	83%	0.06
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.14	0.12	-0.01	10	70%	0.27	0	0.00	10	100%	0.07
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.06	-0.01	10	57%	0.13	2	-0.04	3	33%	0.01
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	16	51%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.07	-0.01	5	60%	0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	9	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keita Bates-Diop	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lonnie Walker IV	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.05	0.03	14	61%	0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Luka Samanic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.6	29.3	15.4	25.2	2.0	38.5	138.4
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +51.9%

SAS +17.5%

NOP -15.2%

NOP -5.1%

SAS +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	SAS	NBA	NOP	SAS	NBA
this game	15.1	14.3	14.4	117.5	118.2	111.3
season	14.0	14.6		112.4	109.8
opponent	14.2	14.4		111.3	112.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	14.3	15.3	18.0	13.4	15.1
SAS	13.4	14.7	15.5	13.7	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	33	35	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.05	-5	2	-7	14.4	15.5	-1.09	14.4	14.2	0.23
Nicolo Melli	10	10	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	0	-3	21.4	14.4	7.01	15.7	14.1	1.58
Eric Bledsoe	71	73	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.23	2	-5	7	14.4	17.0	-2.63	14.5	13.7	0.85
Zion Williamson	71	73	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.34	4	-7	11	14.9	15.8	-0.90	14.2	14.6	-0.45
Willy Hernangomez	36	39	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.01	-8	5	-13	14.6	15.4	-0.84	14.3	14.3	-0.00
Steven Adams	56	55	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.29	-1	-2	1	14.8	15.6	-0.78	14.7	13.7	1.00
Brandon Ingram	73	73	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.41	1	-4	5	15.5	14.1	1.37	14.3	14.2	0.17
Josh Hart	62	64	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-1	-1	15.3	14.9	0.40	13.9	14.9	-1.02
Lonzo Ball	73	73	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.41	-3	0	-3	15.5	13.8	1.76	13.8	15.5	-1.65

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jakob Poeltl	53	51	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.38	4	-1	5	14.7	13.8	0.81	15.0	15.3	-0.32
DeMar DeRozan	79	77	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.41	3	0	3	14.0	15.3	-1.27	15.4	14.1	1.21
Trey Lyles	74	71	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.38	-1	4	-5	14.9	12.3	2.63	15.0	15.5	-0.48
Dejounte Murray	79	76	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	2	-1	14.2	14.6	-0.40	14.6	16.9	-2.23
Patty Mills	62	61	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.31	0	3	-3	13.8	15.1	-1.27	15.2	15.0	0.22
Keita Bates-Diop	16	17	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.01	7	-4	11	13.4	14.5	-1.08	16.5	14.8	1.72
Luka Samanic	28	28	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.06	8	-5	13	13.8	14.5	-0.64	14.9	15.2	-0.36
Lonnie Walker IV	56	55	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.36	-8	11	-19	15.2	13.1	2.06	15.5	14.6	0.83
LaMarcus Aldridge	48	49	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	2	-1	13.5	15.0	-1.44	15.0	15.3	-0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.93,0.79,0.9,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 91, ORL 94	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.99,1	94.1%
ORL 97, MIA 103	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.69,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.93,0.89,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.63,0.85,0.92,1	93.6%
CLE 96, ATL 101	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.65,0.72,0.79,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.79,0.73,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.8,0.94,1,1,1	93.6%