NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	125		Excitement	7.6 [341]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +55.2%
Denver Nuggets	115		Comeback	1.8 [387]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -10.6%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0.55	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.41,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55	0.40	0.19	0.04	21	87%	0.61	2	-0.05	10	80%	0.01
Gary Trent Jr.	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.24,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.27	0.24	0.05	0.02	15	90%	0.29	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	-0.02	0.07	-0.00	20	49%	0.10	3	-0.05	5	80%	-0.01
CJ McCollum	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	15	41%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Zach Collins	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	6	58%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Simons	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	8	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Hassan Whiteside	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.19	0.16	0.03	18	69%	0.33	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.02	0.01	7	93%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerami Grant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.02	-0.00	11	72%	0.20	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.01	9	59%	0.21	3	-0.14	4	75%	0.01
Tyler Cook	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	10	48%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Bol Bol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	7	64%	0.09	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Keita Bates-Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	3	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Dozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.08	-0.01	11	54%	0.03	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	5	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.8	24.1	14.5	34.2	2.7	31.0	132.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +4.9%

DEN -0.9%

POR +6.4%

POR +38.0%

POR +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DEN	NBA	POR	DEN	NBA
this game	15.6	14.6	14.2	130.2	121.1	109.6
season	14.4	15.0		111.9	112.0
opponent	14.5	13.9		110.7	113.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.0	15.3	14.3	17.9	15.6
DEN	13.8	15.3	15.1	14.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ McCollum	80	79	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.20	16	-6	22	15.5	16.2	-0.72	14.8	13.5	1.28
Gary Trent Jr.	70	71	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.07	19	-9	28	16.1	14.1	2.01	14.1	15.8	-1.69
Zach Collins	57	55	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.35	6	4	2	14.8	16.7	-1.82	15.2	13.6	1.59
Jusuf Nurkic	71	68	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.33	6	4	2	15.3	16.3	-1.00	14.8	14.0	0.74
Damian Lillard	82	80	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.33	6	4	2	15.6	15.4	0.26	14.4	15.3	-0.91
Anfernee Simons	30	32	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.10	1	9	-8	15.8	15.5	0.32	13.9	14.9	-0.95
Hassan Whiteside	25	26	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.14	1	9	-8	16.3	15.3	1.00	14.6	14.6	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	65	64	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.01	-5	15	-20	15.6	15.5	0.19	14.5	14.8	-0.31

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerami Grant	56	57	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.10	5	-15	20	14.4	14.7	-0.30	15.1	16.3	-1.13
Tyler Cook	4	5	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-10	10	13.5	14.6	-1.12	22.2	15.2	6.98
Torrey Craig	49	51	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.14	1	-11	12	14.8	14.3	0.55	14.3	17.0	-2.67
Nikola Jokic	47	50	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.11	-1	-9	8	15.0	14.1	0.90	14.5	16.7	-2.18
PJ Dozier	43	42	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.14	-5	-5	0	13.6	15.4	-1.85	17.0	14.5	2.43
Monte Morris	60	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	-1	-8	15.3	13.3	2.03	14.4	17.7	-3.35
Bol Bol	46	47	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.18	-6	-4	-2	14.6	14.6	-0.01	16.9	14.3	2.65
Keita Bates-Diop	46	45	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.06	-11	1	-12	14.3	14.8	-0.55	17.0	14.3	2.67
Mason Plumlee	53	52	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	2	-14	14.1	15.1	-0.99	16.5	14.5	1.96
Michael Porter Jr.	71	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	2	-14	14.7	14.1	0.65	14.9	17.4	-2.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.28,0.23,0.28,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.26,0.23,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.31,0.13,0.22,0.25,0.3,0.43,0.53,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.19,0.01,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 93, CLE 81	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.14,0.18,0.3,0.43,0.57,0.57,0.37,0.53,0.59,0.29,0.17,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.6%
TOR 95, PHI 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.24,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.16,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.34,0.28,0.42,0.53,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.15,0.03,0.04,0	91.7%
MIN 96, HOU 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.27,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.28,0.38,0.22,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.2,0.21,0.09,0.09,0	91.6%