NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	96		Excitement	7.9 [283]		MVP	Stromile Swift (HOU): +25.1%
Houston Rockets	92		Comeback	1.9 [297]		LVP	Troy Hudson (MIN): -16.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0.25	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.16,0.24,0.25	0.13	0.14	0.03	18	63%	0.26	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.05
Rashad McCants	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.15	0.08	-0.01	10	90%	0.25	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.15,0.09,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.15,0.13	0.04	0.09	0.00	13	60%	0.26	4	-0.13	17	71%	0.03
Anthony Carter	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Mark Madsen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	9	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Trenton Hassell	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	9	50%	0.04	4	-0.09	2	0%	-0.04
Marko Jaric	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	3	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	5	20%	-0.08	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.19,0.25	0.25	0.11	0.16	0.01	13	58%	0.25	0	0.00	7	71%	0.02
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.00	15	56%	0.14	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.03
Ryan Bowen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
John Lucas III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.18,0.12,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.07	0.00	10	52%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	4	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	15	52%	0.01	5	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16	-0.16	-0.04	-0.10	0.02	19	40%	-0.16	0	0.00	10	60%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.5	31.3	15.4	28.4	1.7	43.1	146.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +47.5%

MIN +5.1%

MIN +34.2%

HOU -39.0%

MIN +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	HOU	NBA	MIN	HOU	NBA
this game	16.1	16.4	15.6	109.1	103.4	104.4
season	16.1	16.1		101.0	99.9
opponent	16.1	15.9		101.4	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.0	13.4	18.6	16.9	16.1
HOU	15.3	19.4	16.6	14.4	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashad McCants	30	29	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.05	16	-12	28	14.9	16.8	-1.89	19.0	15.1	3.82
Kevin Garnett	74	75	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.41	0	4	-4	16.3	15.3	1.03	16.5	16.0	0.47
Trenton Hassell	81	82	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.42	-2	6	-8	16.2	15.9	0.32	16.3	18.0	-1.74
Anthony Carter	28	28	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.00	10	-6	16	14.2	17.0	-2.84	18.7	15.3	3.39
Ricky Davis	66	68	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.38	-4	8	-12	16.5	15.2	1.29	15.3	20.0	-4.72
Mark Blount	42	45	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.18	0	4	-4	16.7	15.7	0.99	16.1	16.7	-0.53
Troy Hudson	41	42	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.26	-3	7	-10	15.7	16.6	-0.92	14.4	18.1	-3.72
Marko Jaric	23	23	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.24	-3	7	-10	17.7	15.6	2.04	15.8	16.6	-0.82
Eddie Griffin	35	34	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.09	2	2	0	16.9	15.7	1.18	18.2	15.3	2.89
Mark Madsen	20	19	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	0	4	15.9	16.2	-0.32	15.8	16.5	-0.70

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lonny Baxter	42	39	0.35	-0.85	1.19	0.02	11	-15	26	15.8	16.9	-1.15	17.9	14.7	3.23
Ryan Bowen	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-6	8	15.2	16.4	-1.20	19.2	16.0	3.25
John Lucas III	5	4	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-1	-2	22.8	16.0	6.79	11.5	16.4	-4.87
Dikembe Mutombo	27	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.07	-2	-2	0	17.3	16.0	1.24	16.2	16.1	0.09
David Wesley	78	78	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.45	7	-11	18	15.4	23.1	-7.64	16.7	11.8	4.91
Stromile Swift	52	51	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.31	2	-6	8	16.1	16.8	-0.67	16.5	15.6	0.91
Luther Head	25	24	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-10	6	-16	17.6	15.9	1.62	13.0	17.3	-4.27
Tracy McGrady	82	82	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-4	4	16.3	17.3	-0.97	16.1	16.8	-0.74
Rafer Alston	81	80	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.46	-6	2	-8	16.0	20.1	-4.10	16.0	17.1	-1.07
Charles Hayes	49	49	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.16	-21	17	-38	17.8	14.6	3.17	15.3	17.2	-1.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.27,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.28,0.38,0.22,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.2,0.21,0.09,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 107, DET 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.31,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.26,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.25,0.34,0.3,0.47,0.63,0.56,0.41,0.41,0.28,0.25,0.36,0.05,0.02,0	92.7%
UTA 82, TOR 78	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.23,0.27,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.24,0.16,0.22,0.08,0	92.2%
CLE 109, TOR 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.6,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.41,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.2,0.18,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.17,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.16,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.28,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0	92.0%