NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	116		Excitement	5.8 [625]		MVP	Paul Millsap (DEN): +19.2%
Denver Nuggets	128		Comeback	1.5 [1047]		LVP	Jarrett Culver (MIN): -10.3%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelan Martin	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.01	0.02	15	62%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Jordan McLaughlin	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	9	71%	0.12	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Malik Beasley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	-0.02	13	57%	0.05	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Naz Reid	0.03	0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	12	48%	0.03	2	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Josh Okogie	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	8	48%	0.04	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Jaylen Nowell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	11	54%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Juancho Hernangomez	-0.08	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	9	35%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jarrett Culver	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	0.03	-0.04	0.09	8	70%	-0.03	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.06

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.23	0.02	0.05	11	96%	0.21	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.01	10	59%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	10	65%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	0.01	0.05	14	77%	0.16	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.00	5	75%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jerami Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.01	10	55%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	14	63%	0.09	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Noah Vonleh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan McRae	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Dozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	8	39%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	1.7	28.1	16.3	32.1	1.7	29.4	136.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +63.3%

MIN -11.0%

MIN -4.9%

MIN -0.6%

DEN +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	12.9	14.2	14.2	108.4	120.8	109.6
season	13.8	15.0		107.1	112.0
opponent	14.5	13.8		110.7	110.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	12.6	12.0	14.1	12.9	12.9
DEN	13.1	15.2	14.7	13.8	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Naz Reid	46	48	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.02	2	-14	16	13.7	12.2	1.49	14.2	14.2	0.05
Jaylen Nowell	36	34	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.32	9	-21	30	10.8	13.9	-3.15	15.6	13.5	2.12
Josh Okogie	57	56	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.25	-11	-1	-10	12.9	12.9	-0.02	13.7	14.7	-0.95
Juancho Hernangomez	59	61	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.11	-4	-8	4	13.5	12.1	1.43	13.5	15.1	-1.58
Malik Beasley	75	76	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.07	-11	-1	-10	13.1	12.4	0.71	14.1	14.3	-0.17
Kelan Martin	67	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.45	3	-15	18	11.9	14.4	-2.48	14.8	13.1	1.77
Jordan McLaughlin	74	74	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.04	-17	5	-22	14.0	10.4	3.54	13.8	15.2	-1.40
Jarrett Culver	59	57	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.31	-9	-3	-6	12.4	13.4	-1.03	14.4	13.9	0.49
James Johnson	62	58	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	0.07	-22	10	-32	12.7	13.0	-0.30	14.1	14.3	-0.24

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monte Morris	70	72	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.03	15	-3	18	14.3	13.9	0.48	12.1	14.5	-2.40
Jamal Murray	76	78	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.16	21	-9	30	13.5	15.8	-2.31	14.2	9.3	4.88
Gary Harris	66	66	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.19	20	-8	28	13.7	15.0	-1.36	13.7	11.6	2.04
Nikola Jokic	67	68	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.15	18	-6	24	13.7	15.0	-1.34	14.0	11.0	2.98
Will Barton	58	58	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.05	12	0	12	14.3	14.1	0.21	12.9	12.8	0.06
Paul Millsap	57	57	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.12	14	-2	16	13.8	14.6	-0.81	13.7	12.0	1.71
Jerami Grant	43	45	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.04	6	6	0	14.7	13.8	0.95	12.1	13.4	-1.31
Mason Plumlee	33	34	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	10	-8	15.3	13.7	1.59	11.0	13.7	-2.70
Noah Vonleh	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	20	-28	13.7	14.2	-0.54	10.6	13.0	-2.38
Jordan McRae	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	18	-24	15.8	14.1	1.70	12.5	12.9	-0.38
PJ Dozier	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	20	-28	13.7	14.2	-0.54	10.6	13.0	-2.38
Michael Porter Jr.	23	23	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.29	-10	22	-32	14.9	14.0	0.94	11.1	13.3	-2.21
Torrey Craig	20	20	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.35	-16	28	-44	16.2	13.7	2.55	9.9	13.5	-3.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.81,0.83,0.72,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.97,0.86,0.84,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 80, SAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.65,0.77,0.66,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
CHI 99, DAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.96,1,1,1	94.2%
NJN 88, LAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.75,0.79,0.69,0.75,0.81,0.76,0.74,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.76,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%