NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	124		Excitement	6.7 [505]		MVP	Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): +41.0%
Indiana Pacers	116		Comeback	3.3 [352]		LVP	Paul Millsap (DEN): -6.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.22	0.20	0.01	12	96%	0.44	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Nikola Jokic	0.21	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.07	0.12	-0.02	15	58%	0.23	2	-0.02	8	100%	0.05
Monte Morris	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	5	70%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	6	62%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Jerami Grant	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.04	0.03	6	57%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jamal Murray	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03	0.10	-0.03	0.04	18	55%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Will Barton	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	12	47%	0.04	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.00
Gary Harris	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	86%	0.13	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	7	37%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.30	0.06	0.05	13	91%	0.30	0	0.00	7	100%	0.02
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.10	0.03	13	62%	0.21	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.01
T.J. Warren	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.01	0.02	15	62%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.06	-0.05	0.08	-0.03	7	43%	0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	57%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.02,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.03	0.01	12	60%	0.07	2	-0.07	6	33%	-0.04
Goga Bitadze	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	1.6	26.6	14.6	26.5	1.6	38.4	135.4
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +21.2%

DEN +6.4%

DEN +21.0%

IND -0.6%

DEN +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	IND	NBA	DEN	IND	NBA
this game	15.7	15.0	14.2	131.9	123.4	109.6
season	15.0	14.4		112.0	108.7
opponent	14.4	14.5		107.4	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.0	12.9	15.5	18.9	15.7
IND	14.6	14.8	16.5	13.9	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mason Plumlee	50	49	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.04	17	-9	26	14.0	17.5	-3.51	15.1	14.8	0.34
Michael Porter Jr.	43	44	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.06	13	-5	18	15.5	15.8	-0.31	15.7	14.3	1.45
Jamal Murray	72	73	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	-3	14	15.8	15.3	0.47	15.7	12.5	3.20
Jerami Grant	41	42	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.01	12	-4	16	14.8	16.4	-1.60	15.1	14.8	0.34
Gary Harris	71	71	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.19	4	4	0	16.0	14.8	1.13	15.5	13.3	2.25
Will Barton	65	63	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.34	-6	14	-20	16.3	14.3	1.98	14.0	16.9	-2.90
Monte Morris	31	31	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	6	-4	13.7	16.6	-2.89	12.9	16.0	-3.11
Paul Millsap	53	52	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.25	-4	12	-16	16.4	14.8	1.60	14.8	15.1	-0.34
Nikola Jokic	44	45	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.22	-9	17	-26	17.5	14.0	3.51	14.8	15.1	-0.34

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Holiday	40	41	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.20	9	-17	26	14.6	15.2	-0.62	17.9	14.0	3.85
Jeremy Lamb	70	70	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.14	1	-9	10	15.0	14.8	0.17	16.2	14.1	2.09
T.J. Warren	73	72	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.12	-1	-7	6	15.1	14.4	0.68	16.0	14.7	1.24
Myles Turner	65	66	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.20	-1	-7	6	15.7	13.3	2.43	16.7	13.2	3.46
Goga Bitadze	21	21	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-4	0	13.2	15.5	-2.28	13.8	16.2	-2.47
Doug McDermott	27	27	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.14	-8	0	-8	14.4	15.2	-0.77	13.8	16.4	-2.67
Domantas Sabonis	76	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.33	-2	-6	4	14.6	16.3	-1.63	15.5	16.4	-0.86
Justin Holiday	44	45	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.01	-17	9	-26	15.2	14.7	0.55	15.2	16.1	-0.92
T.J. McConnell	54	53	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.06	-17	9	-26	15.2	14.6	0.62	14.0	17.9	-3.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.59,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.51,0.62,0.58,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.14,0.16,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.1,0.03,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 111, CLE 107	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.76,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.03,0,0.01,0	93.8%
TOR 107, NJN 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.72,0.71,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.61,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.22,0.26,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.2,0.04,0.05,0.15,0.06,0.08,0	93.1%
PHX 113, IND 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.73,0.68,0.75,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.55,0.62,0.76,0.53,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.12,0.04,0.05,0.05,0,0	92.7%