NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	94		Excitement	5.4 [713]		MVP	Kelly Olynyk (MIA): +12.0%
Miami Heat	109		Comeback	1.1 [975]		LVP	Jrue Holiday (NOP): -10.4%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.13	0.01	0.04	18	71%	0.15	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jaxson Hayes	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.00	6	100%	0.14	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nicolo Melli	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	9	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick Favors	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	19	45%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Frank Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zylan Cheatham	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kenrich Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	9	39%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Gray	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	-0.10	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	12	58%	0.08	6	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.05	0.02	7	93%	0.17	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.03	0.01	10	75%	0.13	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.01	11	75%	0.13	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Chris Silva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	4	75%	0.08	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Kendrick Nunn	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.03	19	58%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	11	55%	0.15	6	-0.19	7	100%	0.04
Daryl Macon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	0.03	12	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.6	23.3	15.4	25.7	2.8	25.2	119.2
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +26.6%

MIA +9.3%

MIA +12.1%

NOP -4.6%

MIA +6.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	MIA	NBA	NOP	MIA	NBA
this game	14.5	15.2	14.2	95.9	113.5	109.6
season	13.4	14.7		109.9	111.7
opponent	14.5	14.2		108.9	111.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	15.1	12.8	16.3	13.8	14.5
MIA	16.2	15.5	13.0	16.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaxson Hayes	52	49	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-19	23	13.2	16.0	-2.76	14.5	16.0	-1.47
Frank Jackson	12	12	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.04	-3	-12	9	14.6	14.5	0.11	14.4	15.3	-0.90
E'Twaun Moore	80	79	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-12	9	14.5	14.2	0.33	15.6	13.4	2.18
Derrick Favors	15	16	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.04	-6	-9	3	15.9	14.2	1.63	16.6	14.9	1.70
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	64	61	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	-9	3	13.5	16.3	-2.81	15.4	14.8	0.64
Josh Gray	33	32	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.03	-10	-5	-5	13.3	15.1	-1.83	14.7	15.5	-0.78
Nicolo Melli	53	53	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-11	7	15.7	13.0	2.71	16.0	14.3	1.68
Zylan Cheatham	27	25	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.09	-17	2	-19	15.2	14.2	1.01	16.1	14.9	1.23
Kenrich Williams	80	79	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.10	-15	0	-15	15.0	12.4	2.57	14.8	16.9	-2.03
Jrue Holiday	74	74	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.13	-15	0	-15	14.8	13.7	1.09	14.7	17.0	-2.38

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	73	74	0.57	-0.07	0.65	-0.07	22	-7	29	15.3	15.0	0.33	15.1	12.6	2.47
Tyler Herro	66	68	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.09	12	3	9	15.2	15.2	0.01	13.5	16.7	-3.14
Chris Silva	29	28	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.17	8	7	1	14.5	15.5	-0.99	14.0	14.7	-0.74
Duncan Robinson	62	63	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	11	-7	15.0	15.6	-0.59	15.0	13.7	1.30
Kendrick Nunn	78	81	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.05	11	4	7	15.0	16.1	-1.11	14.4	14.8	-0.33
Kelly Olynyk	58	59	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.08	6	9	-3	15.3	15.0	0.34	13.7	15.7	-2.04
Meyers Leonard	35	35	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.03	9	6	3	15.3	15.2	0.12	16.3	13.5	2.79
Bam Adebayo	67	70	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.11	7	8	-1	15.5	14.5	0.99	14.7	14.0	0.74
Daryl Macon	12	12	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	19	-23	16.2	15.1	1.19	12.9	14.7	-1.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.77,0.69,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.85,0.86,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 99, SAS 112	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.77,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.87,0.94,0.99,1,1,1	94.3%
CLE 80, GSW 108	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.76,0.7,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
ATL 104, DEN 115	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.79,0.8,0.87,0.95,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%