NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	104		Excitement	5.4 [722]		MVP	Dale Ellis (DEN): +13.1%
Denver Nuggets	115		Comeback	1.1 [369]		LVP	Dikembe Mutombo (ATL): -12.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mookie Blaylock	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.14	-0.01	0.06	21	66%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Eldridge Recasner	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.10	-0.03	0.03	14	68%	0.05	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.00
Jon Barry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Corbin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.02	0.00	10	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donnie Boyce	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ken Norman	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.03	0.05	19	53%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ivano Newbill	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Steven Smith	-0.09	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	13	42%	-0.09	0	0.00	7	100%	0.03
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.04	-0.04	6	20%	-0.09	2	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.03	-0.05	15	60%	0.13	1	-0.00	5	60%	-0.00
Kenny Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.01	0.02	8	81%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.04	-0.03	9	71%	0.14	4	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Brooks Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.11	0.00	0.09	6	92%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Pierce	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	19	38%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	15	47%	-0.00	3	-0.05	4	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.8	28.0	14.8	23.1	1.8	25.2	117.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +38.2%

DEN +7.2%

DEN +5.5%

ATL -4.6%

DEN +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DEN	NBA	ATL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.6	15.0	15.6	111.8	121.1	104.4
season	16.4	15.2		105.3	102.3
opponent	15.3	16.0		108.8	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.8	17.6	16.1	13.1	15.6
DEN	15.5	13.1	15.9	15.7	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donnie Boyce	3	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-12	13	11.0	15.8	-4.76	18.2	14.9	3.35
Ken Norman	23	23	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-8	5	13.8	16.2	-2.36	13.6	15.5	-1.89
Ivano Newbill	17	17	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.04	-7	-4	-3	16.4	15.4	0.99	13.2	15.4	-2.20
Eldridge Recasner	47	50	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-9	7	15.2	16.0	-0.87	14.9	15.2	-0.34
Jon Barry	43	41	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-8	5	15.2	16.0	-0.82	14.1	15.7	-1.62
Tyrone Corbin	60	61	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	-5	-1	15.1	16.4	-1.27	16.2	12.9	3.27
Dikembe Mutombo	48	50	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.05	-10	-1	-9	17.4	13.7	3.66	15.2	14.8	0.38
Mookie Blaylock	71	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.13	-9	-2	-7	15.5	15.9	-0.40	14.9	15.5	-0.62
Steven Smith	81	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.20	-9	-2	-7	15.8	14.2	1.65	15.2	14.1	1.12
Christian Laettner	72	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.27	-7	-4	-3	15.8	15.0	0.72	15.2	14.4	0.82

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Ellis	69	66	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.24	9	2	7	14.7	15.9	-1.21	16.1	14.4	1.68
LaPhonso Ellis	73	71	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.07	12	-1	13	14.9	15.4	-0.42	15.6	15.6	-0.04
Mark Jackson	71	71	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.18	7	4	3	15.4	14.0	1.39	15.5	16.1	-0.64
Kenny Smith	49	49	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.11	6	5	1	14.5	15.6	-1.10	15.5	15.7	-0.28
Ricky Pierce	39	39	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.03	10	1	9	15.2	15.0	0.19	16.0	15.3	0.64
Ervin Johnson	48	45	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.16	3	8	-5	15.3	14.7	0.59	17.4	13.9	3.53
Tom Hammonds	32	33	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.00	6	5	1	14.7	15.2	-0.58	14.5	16.2	-1.73
Antonio McDyess	59	60	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.06	2	9	-7	15.3	14.6	0.69	14.8	17.1	-2.26
Brooks Thompson	31	28	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	10	-9	14.9	15.1	-0.16	15.2	15.8	-0.61
Darvin Ham	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	12	-13	18.2	14.9	3.35	11.0	15.8	-4.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.79,0.8,0.87,0.95,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 91, POR 107	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
UTA 91, GSW 106	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.75,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.72,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.85,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.8%
DET 79, MIN 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.78,0.65,0.77,0.81,0.89,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.8%