NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	99		Excitement	5.5 [738]		MVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): +17.4%
San Antonio Spurs	112		Comeback	1.4 [1125]		LVP	Stephen Jackson (GSW): -16.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.17	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.16	0.02	0.00	17	66%	0.17	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Baron Davis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	14	52%	0.05	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.06
Andris Biedrins	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.08	-0.00	0.07	15	69%	0.10	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Powell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelenna Azubuike	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sarunas Jasikevicius	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	17	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.01	0.02	10	38%	-0.05	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Stephen Jackson	-0.17	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.05	0.00	17	37%	-0.08	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.05	0.01	13	69%	0.25	3	-0.09	10	80%	-0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.01	0.04	17	65%	0.17	2	-0.05	9	44%	-0.07
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	12	62%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jackie Butler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.01	0.03	10	60%	0.08	3	-0.08	10	80%	0.04
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	5	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	7	36%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	29.4	16.7	27.1	2.5	30.4	133.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +32.5%

SAS +11.1%

SAS +19.6%

GSW -12.5%

GSW -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAS	NBA	GSW	SAS	NBA
this game	12.9	17.4	15.4	105.3	116.7	104.5
season	13.5	16.2		105.7	107.5
opponent	15.4	15.2		98.9	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	11.0	11.4	15.0	15.3	12.9
SAS	15.1	15.3	19.2	21.4	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sarunas Jasikevicius	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-10	7	13.0	12.9	0.13	9.0	17.5	-8.48
Josh Powell	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-10	7	13.0	12.9	0.13	9.0	17.5	-8.48
Kelenna Azubuike	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-11	9	8.7	13.0	-4.34	19.7	17.3	2.34
Matt Barnes	53	53	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.21	4	-17	21	13.6	12.0	1.63	17.7	17.0	0.76
Mickael Pietrus	31	31	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.14	-2	-11	9	14.4	12.1	2.31	17.7	17.3	0.42
Andris Biedrins	32	32	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	-6	-1	12.7	13.0	-0.28	15.0	18.6	-3.59
Al Harrington	61	63	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-10	7	13.0	12.7	0.27	18.7	14.8	3.93
Jason Richardson	71	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	0	-13	12.7	13.5	-0.86	17.9	15.8	2.12
Baron Davis	64	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.15	-8	-5	-3	12.7	13.2	-0.53	17.4	17.4	0.04
Monta Ellis	79	81	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.12	-9	-4	-5	12.8	13.4	-0.63	16.9	20.3	-3.40
Stephen Jackson	74	76	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.02	-19	6	-25	12.3	14.8	-2.51	17.1	18.4	-1.27

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	78	76	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.10	17	-4	21	17.7	16.1	1.65	12.6	14.2	-1.67
Michael Finley	80	78	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.13	15	-2	17	17.8	15.2	2.65	12.8	13.3	-0.53
Bruce Bowen	68	67	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.06	16	-3	19	17.7	16.7	0.96	12.7	13.4	-0.75
Manu Ginobili	64	62	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.14	7	6	1	17.0	18.2	-1.19	13.6	11.5	2.03
Tony Parker	73	71	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.08	5	8	-3	17.3	17.7	-0.45	12.1	15.3	-3.28
Jacque Vaughn	30	30	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	10	-7	17.4	17.4	0.01	14.5	12.1	2.44
James White	20	20	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	11	-9	15.9	17.8	-1.89	13.7	12.6	1.05
Francisco Elson	43	42	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.23	-6	19	-25	18.2	16.8	1.43	13.0	12.8	0.23
Jackie Butler	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	10	-7	9.0	17.5	-8.48	13.0	12.9	0.13
Beno Udrih	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	10	-7	9.0	17.5	-8.48	13.0	12.9	0.13
Matt Bonner	22	22	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.09	0	13	-13	15.9	17.8	-1.93	12.3	13.0	-0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.77,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.87,0.94,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 81, DAL 92	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.99,1,1	94.4%
DEN 102, LAL 116	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.72,0.81,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.92,0.81,0.86,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%
SAC 90, NOH 99	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.61,0.54,0.44,0.5,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.71,0.77,0.72,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.98,1,1,1	94.0%