NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	102		Excitement	5.9 [663]		MVP	Andrew Bynum (LAL): +14.7%
Los Angeles Lakers	116		Comeback	1.4 [1064]		LVP	Trevor Ariza (LAL): -10.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.01	16	59%	0.16	2	-0.06	7	100%	0.05
Nene	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	14	55%	0.09	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
J.R. Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.01	15	53%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Dahntay Jones	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Hart	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Renaldo Balkman	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	0.04	4	62%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.03	-0.05	0.03	11	59%	0.03	3	-0.09	7	100%	0.03
Linas Kleiza	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	13	43%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.06	-0.00	11	62%	0.17	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.18	0.02	0.06	19	69%	0.20	2	-0.05	10	90%	0.03
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	2	71%	0.08	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.02	-0.03	7	47%	0.07	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.02
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	7	44%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	37%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Josh Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.03	19	55%	0.09	3	-0.10	11	82%	0.02
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	6	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	5	36%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	8	22%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	3.3	32.7	19.7	34.3	3.5	32.3	155.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +2.4%

LAL +12.8%

LAL +24.5%

LAL +8.6%

LAL +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	14.8	14.6	15.5	105.2	117.2	106.4
season	14.4	14.9		109.5	110.6
opponent	15.4	15.7		102.6	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.6	17.8	13.2	13.8	14.8
LAL	14.2	13.0	15.0	16.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Hart	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	9.0	15.0	-5.99	19.7	14.4	5.24
Renaldo Balkman	25	26	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-12	10	12.2	15.7	-3.51	14.1	14.8	-0.64
Dahntay Jones	23	24	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.08	-6	-8	2	14.7	14.8	-0.09	16.8	13.9	2.91
Linas Kleiza	53	53	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-15	16	14.4	15.3	-0.90	14.6	14.6	0.04
Johan Petro	22	22	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.09	-9	-5	-4	15.5	14.6	0.90	14.7	14.6	0.12
J.R. Smith	55	55	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.11	-4	-10	6	14.4	15.3	-0.89	13.7	15.7	-2.10
Anthony Carter	39	40	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.03	-8	-6	-2	16.3	13.8	2.43	13.9	15.0	-1.11
Chris Andersen	53	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.01	-11	-3	-8	14.1	15.6	-1.52	15.2	13.7	1.53
Chauncey Billups	73	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.09	-8	-6	-2	14.6	15.4	-0.76	14.8	14.0	0.78
Nene	75	75	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.15	-9	-5	-4	15.8	11.5	4.21	14.5	14.7	-0.16
Carmelo Anthony	64	67	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.07	-14	0	-14	15.3	13.8	1.54	14.1	15.5	-1.40

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kobe Bryant	72	71	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.05	15	-1	16	14.4	15.0	-0.52	14.5	15.5	-1.00
Lamar Odom	74	73	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.05	13	1	12	13.9	16.5	-2.59	14.9	14.6	0.29
Pau Gasol	78	76	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.01	15	-1	16	14.8	13.7	1.11	14.7	15.3	-0.68
Shannon Brown	29	29	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.02	14	0	14	14.7	14.6	0.10	13.0	15.6	-2.52
Luke Walton	49	47	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.08	8	6	2	13.1	16.1	-3.02	15.0	14.6	0.38
Jordan Farmar	29	29	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.02	6	8	-2	13.4	15.1	-1.66	16.2	14.2	1.95
Andrew Bynum	42	41	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.08	3	11	-8	15.3	14.1	1.22	15.6	14.2	1.35
Sasha Vujacic	38	37	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	10	-6	15.0	14.3	0.63	14.7	14.9	-0.21
Trevor Ariza	38	37	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	14	-14	15.8	13.8	1.95	15.4	14.4	1.02
Josh Powell	4	4	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	17	-20	14.7	14.6	0.17	8.2	15.1	-6.84
Derek Fisher	42	41	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	19	-24	15.9	13.6	2.33	14.9	14.7	0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.72,0.81,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.92,0.81,0.86,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 78, PHX 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.76,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.87,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
POR 89, ATL 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.92,0.92,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1	94.3%
DET 88, MEM 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.71,0.66,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.7,0.74,0.86,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.95,1	94.2%