NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	85		Excitement	3.3 [1156]		MVP	Austin Rivers (HOU): +17.1%
Houston Rockets	112		Comeback	1.9 [845]		LVP	Malik Beasley (DEN): -8.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	0.00	0.05	14	57%	0.07	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Monte Morris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.12	-0.00	0.10	9	70%	0.02	0	0.00	5	100%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	14	53%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	57%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jarred Vanderbilt	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.11	0.00	-0.10	5	20%	-0.00	3	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	40%	-0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	11	50%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.15	-0.00	-0.07	9	20%	-0.04	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.01	-0.04	10	71%	0.17	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Eric Gordon	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.00	0.02	11	82%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.17	-0.00	0.12	22	66%	0.11	4	-0.06	14	93%	0.03
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.00	0.04	13	61%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Iman Shumpert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	5	70%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Chiozza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danuel House Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	5	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	10	39%	0.00	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.8	26.8	14.7	26.1	1.7	24.3	118.8
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +48.7%

DEN -0.8%

HOU +4.0%

DEN -1.3%

DEN -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	15.3	14.9	14.3	89.5	116.7	109.3
season	14.8	14.8		112.0	114.0
opponent	14.4	14.6		109.3	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.5	17.3	14.9	14.5	15.3
HOU	15.5	14.0	15.1	14.9	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarred Vanderbilt	11	12	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-24	21	13.6	15.5	-1.85	11.8	15.3	-3.49
Trey Lyles	24	25	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.14	-5	-22	17	14.5	15.5	-1.09	14.9	14.9	0.05
Juancho Hernangomez	28	30	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.25	-10	-17	7	14.9	15.4	-0.54	14.8	14.9	-0.17
Nikola Jokic	51	50	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.10	-1	-26	25	15.0	15.6	-0.55	15.5	14.2	1.32
Gary Harris	56	56	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-23	19	15.2	15.3	-0.10	15.4	14.2	1.22
Will Barton	57	57	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.03	-8	-19	11	15.4	15.1	0.28	15.2	14.4	0.80
Paul Millsap	45	43	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.06	-9	-18	9	15.3	15.3	-0.01	15.0	14.8	0.17
Torrey Craig	9	9	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.10	-12	-15	3	17.0	15.1	1.91	12.1	15.2	-3.06
Mason Plumlee	43	45	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.23	-18	-9	-9	15.7	14.9	0.77	15.2	14.6	0.59
Monte Morris	52	54	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.32	-23	-4	-19	15.4	15.1	0.37	14.6	15.3	-0.75
Jamal Murray	53	52	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.05	-14	-13	-1	15.2	15.4	-0.15	15.1	14.6	0.54
Malik Beasley	46	47	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.38	-28	1	-29	15.7	14.9	0.78	14.3	15.4	-1.15

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Austin Rivers	57	56	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.49	34	-7	41	13.7	16.6	-2.91	16.1	14.0	2.12
Nene	31	29	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.14	17	10	7	14.5	15.1	-0.59	15.4	15.2	0.25
Eric Gordon	52	53	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	16	-5	15.9	13.7	2.26	15.2	15.3	-0.06
Chris Paul	60	59	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.07	14	13	1	15.4	14.0	1.46	15.2	15.4	-0.23
Iman Shumpert	52	49	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.16	15	12	3	14.4	15.4	-0.97	14.8	15.8	-0.99
PJ Tucker	48	50	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.19	16	11	5	15.4	14.3	1.10	15.9	14.6	1.24
James Harden	63	64	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.21	14	13	1	15.5	13.8	1.67	15.4	15.0	0.45
Clint Capela	56	58	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.15	10	17	-7	15.8	13.6	2.12	15.5	14.9	0.58
Danuel House Jr.	43	41	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.06	4	23	-19	14.4	15.3	-0.93	14.3	16.0	-1.68
Chris Chiozza	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	27	-27	10.8	15.3	-4.53	13.0	15.5	-2.48
Gary Clark	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	27	-27	10.8	15.3	-4.53	13.0	15.5	-2.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 100, DAL 108	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.81,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,0.99,1	96.3%
SAC 100, BOS 119	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
BKN 99, DET 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.72,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.95,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.93,0.94,0.98,1	96.1%