NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	100		Excitement	3.7 [969]		MVP	Luka Doncic (DAL): +17.3%
Dallas Mavericks	108		Comeback	1.7 [917]		LVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): -15.0%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaac Bonga	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	5	82%	0.07	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Thomas Bryant	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	9	58%	0.07	3	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Jordan McRae	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.02	0.03	9	55%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Davis Bertans	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	8	41%	0.01	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Garrison Mathews	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Robinson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rui Hachimura	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	15	47%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Chiozza	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Admiral Schofield	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moritz Wagner	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.04	-0.00	0.09	5	108%	0.02	5	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Ish Smith	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	9	39%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.02	0.01	25	34%	-0.12	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luka Doncic	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.03	0.00	19	74%	0.27	6	-0.09	8	75%	0.01
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.07	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	-0.05	6	64%	0.09	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Justin Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	6	71%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	83%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	16	59%	0.07	4	-0.05	7	86%	0.02
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	7	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Brunson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.12	0.00	-0.07	10	37%	-0.00	4	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	2.5	33.4	14.7	31.1	2.7	30.2	144.7
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +43.6%

DAL +6.1%

WAS -2.9%

DAL +1.2%

DAL +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	DAL	NBA	WAS	DAL	NBA
this game	13.7	14.0	14.2	95.2	104.9	109.6
season	13.7	14.5		109.8	115.2
opponent	14.1	14.0		111.3	114.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	12.7	15.8	15.1	11.3	13.7
DAL	12.5	12.4	14.9	16.4	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Garrison Mathews	2	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-11	14	6.5	13.8	-7.32	24.0	13.9	10.08
Justin Robinson	2	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-11	14	6.5	13.8	-7.32	24.0	13.9	10.08
Isaac Bonga	48	45	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-8	8	14.4	13.1	1.29	14.7	13.5	1.15
Moritz Wagner	36	38	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.20	5	-13	18	12.5	14.3	-1.79	13.9	14.1	-0.20
Rui Hachimura	53	52	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.16	2	-10	12	14.2	13.2	1.03	14.1	14.0	0.12
Ish Smith	53	51	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-4	0	14.5	12.9	1.61	13.9	14.1	-0.23
Bradley Beal	68	67	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.28	1	-9	10	13.7	13.5	0.21	14.6	12.9	1.65
Chris Chiozza	45	45	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-5	2	13.0	14.2	-1.14	13.4	14.5	-1.10
Jordan McRae	50	51	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.10	-7	-1	-6	13.1	14.2	-1.06	13.9	14.1	-0.15
Admiral Schofield	38	36	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.11	-7	-1	-6	13.6	13.7	-0.15	13.1	14.5	-1.44
Thomas Bryant	67	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.02	-16	8	-24	14.5	12.2	2.34	13.9	14.2	-0.22
Davis Bertans	63	64	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.04	-17	9	-26	13.2	14.5	-1.29	13.9	14.3	-0.38

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorian Finney-Smith	69	69	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.05	18	-10	28	13.5	15.1	-1.60	14.2	12.7	1.54
Seth Curry	43	43	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.08	11	-3	14	13.2	14.6	-1.43	14.3	13.3	1.02
Justin Jackson	38	39	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	-2	12	14.2	13.9	0.34	13.9	13.5	0.35
Kristaps Porzingis	65	66	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.24	3	5	-2	13.4	15.1	-1.72	13.7	13.7	-0.07
Jalen Brunson	54	53	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.25	2	6	-4	13.6	14.5	-0.86	12.7	14.6	-1.90
Luka Doncic	70	73	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.20	0	8	-8	14.6	12.8	1.77	13.7	13.7	-0.06
Tim Hardaway Jr.	46	45	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.09	2	6	-4	14.7	13.5	1.22	13.7	13.7	-0.02
Delon Wright	45	47	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	7	-6	14.6	13.6	0.99	14.0	13.4	0.62
Courtney Lee	34	37	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.16	-4	12	-16	14.0	14.0	-0.07	13.6	13.7	-0.13
Maxi Kleber	51	53	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.12	-3	11	-14	14.7	13.4	1.28	13.1	14.3	-1.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.81,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 92, IND 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.9,0.87,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
DEN 85, HOU 112	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
SAC 100, BOS 119	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%