NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	104		Excitement	7.5 [400]		MVP	Nikola Vucevic (ORL): +22.1%
Miami Heat	99		Comeback	5.4 [128]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -17.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Vucevic	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.22	0.09	0.14	0.00	18	63%	0.27	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Jonathan Isaac	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.07	-0.00	13	73%	0.21	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Khem Birch	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	2	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
Wes Iwundu	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.05	-0.00	17	39%	0.05	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00
Michael Carter-Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.02	-0.03	5	25%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.00
Evan Fournier	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	9	58%	0.12	3	-0.17	1	100%	0.01
Terrence Ross	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	13	36%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
D.J. Augustin	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1	0.01	-0.08	0.03	11	53%	-0.04	2	-0.06	10	90%	0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.11	0.11	0.19	-0.02	0.06	18	70%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	7	53%	0.07	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.09
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	17	54%	0.18	3	-0.12	7	86%	0.02
Josh Richardson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.01	12	57%	0.06	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	83%	0.10	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	9	45%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	25%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	4	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	-0.00	6	17%	-0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	27.2	34.8	25.6	1.8	37.9	153.2
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +48.6%

MIA -8.5%

ORL +20.9%

MIA -11.4%

ORL +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.0	14.8	14.3	104.0	99.0	109.3
season	14.9	14.8		107.2	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.3		106.7	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.4	15.4	13.4	12.1	14.0
MIA	13.4	14.6	17.9	13.6	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Vucevic	69	68	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.24	21	-16	37	13.6	15.0	-1.45	16.5	11.1	5.36
Jonathan Isaac	56	57	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.33	10	-5	15	13.9	14.2	-0.31	16.2	12.9	3.35
D.J. Augustin	62	61	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.07	10	-5	15	13.9	14.2	-0.25	15.7	13.4	2.27
Terrence Ross	64	63	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.24	1	4	-3	14.5	13.3	1.18	14.1	15.9	-1.87
Aaron Gordon	79	79	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.30	-3	8	-11	13.5	16.0	-2.49	14.5	15.8	-1.26
Evan Fournier	69	69	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.04	6	-1	7	13.8	14.6	-0.84	15.2	13.9	1.30
Wes Iwundu	32	32	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.14	1	4	-3	15.3	13.4	1.84	13.3	15.4	-2.10
Michael Carter-Williams	42	43	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.37	-8	13	-21	13.1	14.7	-1.61	12.6	16.4	-3.80
Khem Birch	27	28	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	0.02	-13	18	-31	16.9	13.0	3.87	12.0	15.8	-3.85

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	60	61	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.23	2	-7	9	15.8	13.2	2.66	14.3	13.7	0.60
Goran Dragic	56	55	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.22	1	-6	7	12.9	17.2	-4.31	14.5	13.5	0.94
James Johnson	45	45	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.14	-2	-3	1	13.8	15.5	-1.68	14.8	13.4	1.44
Hassan Whiteside	31	30	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	0	-5	13.3	15.4	-2.10	16.1	13.2	2.91
Kelly Olynyk	47	45	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.06	-7	2	-9	15.9	13.8	2.08	13.6	14.3	-0.70
Josh Richardson	85	85	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.39	3	-8	11	14.6	15.5	-0.82	13.5	17.1	-3.65
Derrick Jones Jr.	51	53	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.10	-7	2	-9	17.0	12.5	4.47	14.8	13.2	1.54
Dwyane Wade	67	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.43	1	-6	7	13.8	16.8	-2.97	12.5	17.1	-4.63
Dion Waiters	58	60	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	6	-17	15.5	13.8	1.70	13.9	14.1	-0.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.77,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.76,0.74,0.7,0.69,0.79,0.77,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.65,0.48,0.55,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.41,0.32,0.41,0.24,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.15,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 75, ORL 70	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.72,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.77,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.28,0.37,0.14,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0	91.0%
PHX 102, CLE 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.45,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.22,0.18,0.25,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.04,0	91.0%
LAC 117, HOU 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.7,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0	90.9%