NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	112		Excitement	7.6 [381]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +34.2%
Portland Trail Blazers	117		Comeback	5.8 [316]		LVP	Evan Turner (POR): -11.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Drummond	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.17,0.17	0.12	0.06	0.01	11	66%	0.17	0	0.00	7	100%	0.06
Reggie Jackson	0.16	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.04	0.01	16	71%	0.21	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Blake Griffin	0.16	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.04	0.02	18	67%	0.20	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Thon Maker	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.04	0.00	3	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kennard	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	11	59%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	9	50%	0.13	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	5	45%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Bruce Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Langston Galloway	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	10	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.07,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.15	0.19	-0.01	16	76%	0.49	4	-0.15	5	80%	0.01
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.09	0.03	13	71%	0.22	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.08	0.00	7	67%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Enes Kanter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.07	-0.01	9	56%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	-0.02	0.00	9	70%	0.08	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.07	-0.00	12	54%	0.13	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Zach Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.00	6	69%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jake Layman	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	1	33%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Rodney Hood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	6	36%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.5	25.2	14.8	28.1	1.7	31.2	127.7
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +24.3%

POR +12.8%

POR +26.3%

DET -10.1%

DET -3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	POR	NBA	DET	POR	NBA
this game	15.2	16.3	14.3	121.7	128.6	109.3
season	15.3	14.9		107.5	112.6
opponent	13.9	14.0		109.4	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.2	14.9	15.0	15.8	15.2
POR	14.8	16.4	16.3	17.7	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ish Smith	37	37	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.13	0	-5	5	15.6	15.0	0.59	16.4	16.2	0.15
Bruce Brown	36	36	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.07	-1	-4	3	15.5	15.0	0.46	15.5	16.8	-1.26
Thon Maker	32	30	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.06	-7	2	-9	15.1	15.3	-0.24	16.6	16.1	0.50
Zaza Pachulia	11	11	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.07	-8	3	-11	16.7	15.0	1.71	17.2	16.1	1.04
Andre Drummond	74	73	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.35	4	-9	13	15.4	14.6	0.75	16.4	15.8	0.54
Wayne Ellington	36	37	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.10	-5	0	-5	16.3	14.5	1.79	16.2	16.3	-0.13
Luke Kennard	56	54	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.25	0	-5	5	14.5	16.3	-1.79	16.3	16.2	0.13
Blake Griffin	67	68	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.49	1	-6	7	14.9	16.1	-1.24	15.9	17.5	-1.63
Langston Galloway	56	55	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.42	-4	-1	-3	15.0	15.5	-0.46	16.8	15.5	1.26
Reggie Jackson	55	54	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.49	-5	0	-5	15.0	15.6	-0.59	16.2	16.4	-0.15

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jusuf Nurkic	61	60	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.52	4	1	3	15.7	17.5	-1.84	15.3	15.1	0.14
Seth Curry	61	61	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.37	3	2	1	16.3	16.2	0.10	14.7	16.2	-1.47
Damian Lillard	70	71	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.35	3	2	1	16.0	17.0	-1.02	15.0	15.9	-0.83
Al-Farouq Aminu	71	70	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.48	-2	7	-9	15.9	17.4	-1.52	14.9	16.2	-1.27
Maurice Harkless	52	54	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.40	0	5	-5	16.5	15.9	0.60	15.2	15.3	-0.08
Evan Turner	25	25	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	2	1	17.2	15.9	1.29	16.0	14.9	1.02
Zach Collins	20	22	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.13	7	-2	9	17.4	15.9	1.52	16.2	14.9	1.27
Jake Layman	26	26	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	4	-3	16.2	16.3	-0.05	15.5	15.1	0.34
Rodney Hood	39	39	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.10	5	0	5	15.7	16.7	-0.96	15.7	14.8	0.91
Enes Kanter	30	32	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.17	1	4	-3	17.5	15.7	1.84	15.1	15.3	-0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.33,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 94, CHH 100	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.52,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.3,0.24,0.28,0.38,0.22,0.24,0.91,1	90.8%
CHA 94, LAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.68,0.67,0.74,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.29,0.13,0.47,0.22,0.67,0.85,1	90.6%
MIA 65, BOS 70	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.65,0.68,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.22,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.14,0.21,0.43,0.85,1	90.2%