NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	5.8 [698]		MVP	Marco Belinelli (SAS): +10.7%
San Antonio Spurs	104		Comeback	1.0 [864]		LVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): -22.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Beasley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	0.01	0.07	11	65%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Will Barton	0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	10	60%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.00	0.03	4	62%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	11	32%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	8	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	8	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.1	0.01	-0.12	-0.02	9	44%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.13	0.11	-0.20	0.05	14	79%	0.14	3	-0.27	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.23	0.05	-0.18	0.10	19	61%	-0.15	4	-0.08	3	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.02	-0.04	7	57%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Eubanks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	17	58%	0.06	4	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	5	70%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	13	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.08	-0.02	10	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.16
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.05	-0.08	0.02	19	59%	-0.01	3	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	24.5	15.3	24.9	1.8	32.3	124.5
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +41.6%

DEN -4.9%

DEN -31.4%

SAS +32.8%

SAS +11.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	13.9	16.2	14.3	108.4	108.3	109.3
season	14.8	14.8		112.0	111.7
opponent	14.4	14.6		110.4	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.8	13.1	14.8	12.9	13.9
SAS	12.8	16.2	17.2	19.2	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Torrey Craig	26	27	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.19	6	-7	13	14.2	13.8	0.33	15.9	16.3	-0.42
Gary Harris	54	54	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.38	9	-10	19	13.5	14.5	-1.05	16.5	15.9	0.53
Isaiah Thomas	32	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	4	-9	13.9	13.9	0.03	16.2	16.2	-0.06
Jamal Murray	56	56	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.43	7	-8	15	13.7	14.2	-0.40	16.6	15.7	0.82
Paul Millsap	62	61	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.28	0	-1	1	13.5	14.8	-1.29	16.1	16.5	-0.40
Monte Morris	37	38	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.07	-7	6	-13	14.0	13.9	0.14	15.7	16.6	-0.86
Will Barton	63	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.43	4	-5	9	13.9	13.9	-0.03	16.2	16.2	0.06
Nikola Jokic	74	76	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.61	10	-11	21	13.7	14.6	-0.84	17.0	13.3	3.70
Malik Beasley	43	44	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.06	-11	10	-21	14.6	13.3	1.30	16.0	16.5	-0.51
Mason Plumlee	28	28	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.14	-18	17	-35	15.2	13.4	1.79	14.7	16.8	-2.09

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patty Mills	32	30	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.32	15	-14	29	14.9	16.9	-1.98	14.3	13.7	0.61
Rudy Gay	55	55	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.23	8	-7	15	15.8	16.8	-1.00	14.5	13.1	1.32
DeMar DeRozan	74	73	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.35	2	-1	3	16.2	16.2	0.00	14.0	13.8	0.19
Marco Belinelli	52	51	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.20	6	-5	11	15.3	17.3	-2.01	14.2	13.5	0.69
LaMarcus Aldridge	72	71	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.45	-3	4	-7	16.0	16.8	-0.81	14.2	13.2	0.95
Jakob Poeltl	36	37	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.05	8	-7	15	16.5	16.1	0.43	13.8	14.0	-0.22
Derrick White	70	71	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.51	-13	14	-27	16.8	14.7	2.16	13.7	14.7	-1.00
Davis Bertans	35	35	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.32	-9	10	-19	17.7	15.4	2.38	12.9	14.5	-1.59
Drew Eubanks	9	8	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	2	-3	16.8	16.2	0.61	13.4	14.0	-0.59
Bryn Forbes	45	44	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.03	-8	9	-17	16.7	15.8	0.82	13.5	14.3	-0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.76,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.76,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.78,0.74,0.8,0.73,0.67,0.73,0.62,0.68,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.93,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 98, DEN 115	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.73,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.81,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.91,0.92,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
MIL 95, UTA 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.87,0.92,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
UTA 96, LAC 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.82,0.76,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.88,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%