NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	98		Excitement	4.7 [879]		MVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): +7.1%
Denver Nuggets	115		Comeback	1.0 [1293]		LVP	Mike Miller (MEM): -16.8%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	17	56%	0.10	3	-0.06	7	71%	-0.02
Eddie Jones	0.01	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	87%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Lawrence Roberts	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alexander Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tarence Kinsey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	7	47%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Damon Stoudamire	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.04	-0.00	0.09	7	52%	-0.06	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.01
Hakim Warrick	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	6	58%	-0.01	4	-0.06	7	71%	-0.01
Chucky Atkins	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.02	0.07	15	48%	-0.07	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Mike Miller	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.19	-0.02	-0.04	11	23%	-0.09	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	-0.00	18	51%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	0.00	0.05	5	73%	0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	11	52%	0.03	0	0.00	11	45%	-0.06
Jamal Sampson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	4	25%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	8	31%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.03	16	62%	0.09	6	-0.12	5	60%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	0.03	25	48%	0.02	3	-0.06	8	100%	0.02
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	43%	-0.03	2	-0.03	6	33%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.5	32.4	0.1	30.2	2.5	29.5	123.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +22.5%

DEN +2.1%

DEN +16.2%

DEN +10.0%

MEM -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DEN	NBA	MEM	DEN	NBA
this game	13.3	14.4	15.4	95.1	109.5	104.5
season	15.1	14.0		105.1	105.8
opponent	15.3	15.1		104.5	110.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	13.0	12.0	13.8	14.4	13.3
DEN	13.1	14.7	13.9	16.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lawrence Roberts	14	13	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.12	5	-22	27	9.7	13.8	-4.12	14.6	14.4	0.23
Rudy Gay	52	51	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.25	9	-26	35	11.8	14.7	-2.92	14.7	14.2	0.50
Tarence Kinsey	7	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-22	27	12.1	13.4	-1.21	19.6	14.0	5.53
Alexander Johnson	23	25	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.20	3	-20	23	13.9	13.1	0.83	16.6	13.7	2.93
Brian Cardinal	44	44	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.09	-1	-16	15	12.9	13.5	-0.63	14.6	14.3	0.27
Eddie Jones	25	25	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.19	-12	-5	-7	15.2	12.7	2.49	13.7	14.6	-0.96
Damon Stoudamire	26	26	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.26	-15	-2	-13	15.2	12.6	2.52	14.0	14.5	-0.54
Dahntay Jones	55	57	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	-11	5	12.9	13.7	-0.74	14.5	14.3	0.22
Chucky Atkins	72	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-15	13	12.7	14.6	-1.92	14.4	14.5	-0.11
Pau Gasol	83	86	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.14	-17	0	-17	13.3	13.1	0.21	13.9	16.5	-2.58
Hakim Warrick	46	46	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.30	-27	10	-37	14.2	12.5	1.63	13.7	15.0	-1.27
Mike Miller	68	71	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.30	-27	10	-37	14.1	11.7	2.32	14.2	14.9	-0.70

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	67	68	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.21	26	-9	35	13.5	15.9	-2.41	12.8	14.2	-1.45
Allen Iverson	87	88	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.20	24	-7	31	13.6	18.5	-4.94	13.2	13.7	-0.46
Steve Blake	81	77	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.27	23	-6	29	14.2	15.2	-0.98	13.1	13.7	-0.51
J.R. Smith	51	50	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.26	4	13	-9	15.1	13.7	1.42	13.4	13.2	0.25
Eduardo Najera	26	28	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.08	15	2	13	12.6	15.0	-2.44	12.6	13.5	-0.96
Carmelo Anthony	74	72	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.01	5	12	-7	14.1	15.0	-0.88	12.8	14.3	-1.46
Yakhouba Diawara	36	35	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.14	-1	18	-19	15.4	13.9	1.45	15.1	12.4	2.70
Reggie Evans	42	41	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.16	-2	19	-21	15.5	13.7	1.86	13.1	13.4	-0.29
Nene	39	37	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	16	-15	14.3	14.5	-0.20	15.1	12.2	2.91
Jamal Sampson	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	16	-15	20.0	14.3	5.70	14.0	13.3	0.74
DerMarr Johnson	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	19	-21	18.5	14.2	4.34	12.5	13.3	-0.82
Linas Kleiza	14	12	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.20	-9	26	-35	19.3	13.7	5.63	11.1	13.6	-2.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.73,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.81,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.91,0.92,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 95, CLE 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.81,0.8,0.86,0.83,0.86,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
DEN 103, SAS 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.76,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.76,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.78,0.74,0.8,0.73,0.67,0.73,0.62,0.68,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.93,1	95.3%
CHI 105, HOU 121	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.77,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.7,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%