NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	120		Excitement	6.9 [493]		MVP	Julius Randle (NOP): +13.4%
Denver Nuggets	112		Comeback	6.3 [30]		LVP	Will Barton (DEN): -15.9%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Julius Randle	0.13	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.08	0.05	-0.00	20	56%	0.19	2	-0.06	10	50%	-0.06
Cheick Diallo	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.08	-0.02	9	67%	0.17	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Frank Jackson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.01	10	73%	0.13	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Darius Miller	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.02	5	71%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Kenrich Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	7	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Clark	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	-0.02	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	23	57%	0.11	6	-0.13	5	100%	0.02
Jahlil Okafor	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	9	53%	0.07	3	-0.10	1	0%	-0.01
Elfrid Payton	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	9	36%	-0.06	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.02	0.03	6	100%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	0.01	11	71%	0.16	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.01	8	64%	0.09	2	-0.03	9	67%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	15	51%	0.06	1	-0.03	9	100%	0.04
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	9	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	14	40%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	9	42%	-0.01	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	11	36%	-0.05	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	1.8	33.2	15.4	25.3	2.4	30.3	136.5
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +50.0%

DEN -7.5%

NOP +15.4%

DEN -11.6%

NOP +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	DEN	NBA	NOP	DEN	NBA
this game	14.0	12.8	14.3	112.1	103.7	109.3
season	13.4	14.8		110.2	112.0
opponent	14.6	14.2		108.1	111.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	14.8	12.8	11.5	18.1	14.0
DEN	11.9	12.5	12.5	14.6	12.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darius Miller	61	60	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.16	16	-8	24	13.6	14.7	-1.12	12.9	12.6	0.24
Jrue Holiday	78	80	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.16	15	-7	22	14.1	13.8	0.29	12.1	14.7	-2.64
Julius Randle	86	87	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	-2	12	14.2	13.4	0.76	12.1	15.4	-3.31
Cheick Diallo	51	53	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.08	13	-5	18	11.9	16.0	-4.16	12.5	13.1	-0.60
Frank Jackson	59	60	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.26	6	2	4	12.9	15.4	-2.43	13.1	12.3	0.84
Ian Clark	8	10	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.12	7	1	6	10.9	14.3	-3.42	12.9	12.7	0.16
Jahlil Okafor	50	49	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.16	-5	13	-18	15.8	12.5	3.38	13.6	12.1	1.56
Stanley Johnson	10	9	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	10	-12	11.8	14.3	-2.47	12.0	12.8	-0.83
Kenrich Williams	62	64	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.22	-10	18	-28	15.1	12.6	2.44	13.2	12.2	0.97
Elfrid Payton	70	68	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.21	-10	18	-28	15.2	11.9	3.28	13.3	11.8	1.44

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Torrey Craig	3	4	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-11	14	13.0	12.8	0.25	14.2	14.0	0.22
Nikola Jokic	42	43	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.27	6	-14	20	14.0	11.9	2.11	16.7	12.2	4.53
Gary Harris	57	57	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.21	3	-11	14	11.9	13.8	-1.91	15.0	12.9	2.06
Jamal Murray	72	71	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.14	-1	-7	6	11.9	14.5	-2.61	14.8	12.6	2.19
Isaiah Thomas	35	35	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.08	-4	-4	0	14.6	11.9	2.68	13.1	14.5	-1.41
Juancho Hernangomez	25	25	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.17	-1	-7	6	14.5	12.2	2.29	13.8	14.1	-0.26
Will Barton	73	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-4	0	11.9	14.6	-2.68	14.5	13.1	1.41
Mason Plumlee	62	60	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.06	-13	5	-18	12.1	13.6	-1.52	12.1	16.5	-4.41
Monte Morris	36	36	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.12	-7	-1	-6	14.5	11.9	2.61	12.6	14.8	-2.19
Malik Beasley	51	50	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	3	-14	13.8	11.9	1.91	12.9	15.0	-2.06
Paul Millsap	84	82	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	3	-14	12.1	15.2	-3.15	14.1	13.9	0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.74,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.62,0.58,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.21,0.17,0.24,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 111, CLE 107	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.76,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.03,0,0.01,0	93.5%
CHH 111, LAC 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.77,0.67,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.37,0.14,0.12,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	92.8%
UTA 93, HOU 71	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.8%