NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	4.7 [918]		MVP	Kyrie Irving (BOS): +11.7%
Boston Celtics	107		Comeback	1.2 [1095]		LVP	James Johnson (MIA): -12.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	0.01	0.04	12	67%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	6	72%	0.04	3	-0.04	6	83%	-0.00
Tyler Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	9	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.03	16	56%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	55%	0.01	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Rodney McGruder	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	13	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	5	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	10	36%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.03	0.02	7	57%	0.01	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	19	63%	0.17	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.02	-0.02	13	73%	0.18	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.12	-0.01	0.05	11	68%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	11	73%	0.08	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Semi Ojeleye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	150%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	7	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	4	40%	0.00	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	9	33%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	6	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.00	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.4	26.8	14.7	23.3	1.8	29.2	125.3
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +33.7%

MIA -1.0%

MIA -1.2%

BOS +18.4%

BOS +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	15.3	13.7	14.3	99.0	108.1	109.3
season	14.8	13.9		106.3	109.9
opponent	14.7	14.3		106.3	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	15.9	17.6	11.7	15.3
BOS	12.0	14.1	12.4	16.0	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dion Waiters	53	53	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.44	21	-29	50	13.8	16.9	-3.06	15.2	11.9	3.24
Derrick Jones Jr.	63	61	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.37	14	-22	36	13.7	18.0	-4.29	14.5	12.4	2.11
Dwyane Wade	50	48	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.04	-8	0	-8	16.2	14.4	1.78	12.0	15.2	-3.19
Tyler Johnson	60	60	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.31	3	-11	14	14.5	16.5	-2.01	13.4	14.1	-0.72
Hassan Whiteside	40	40	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.01	-8	0	-8	17.3	13.9	3.34	12.9	14.2	-1.20
Bam Adebayo	60	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-8	8	13.9	17.3	-3.34	14.2	12.9	1.20
Justise Winslow	57	58	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-4	0	14.5	16.2	-1.69	14.7	12.2	2.43
Rodney McGruder	16	16	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.10	-17	9	-26	17.5	14.8	2.65	13.9	13.6	0.32
Josh Richardson	65	64	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.07	-19	11	-30	16.4	13.1	3.27	13.1	14.7	-1.66
James Johnson	36	36	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.10	-22	14	-36	18.4	13.5	4.83	12.1	14.6	-2.53

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	65	65	0.74	-0.24	0.97	-0.14	30	-22	52	13.3	14.3	-1.00	16.7	12.6	4.11
Kyrie Irving	70	70	0.68	-0.18	0.86	-0.05	25	-17	42	13.2	14.8	-1.64	16.5	12.5	4.00
Marcus Morris	60	61	0.68	-0.18	0.86	-0.06	25	-17	42	13.6	13.7	-0.04	16.8	12.9	3.89
Jayson Tatum	62	62	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.02	18	-10	28	13.7	13.6	0.07	16.4	13.5	2.85
Marcus Smart	70	69	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.02	16	-8	24	13.7	13.6	0.16	15.9	13.8	2.12
Semi Ojeleye	13	14	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.19	-7	15	-22	15.2	13.4	1.71	11.5	15.9	-4.38
Gordon Hayward	41	43	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.30	-12	20	-32	13.5	13.8	-0.35	13.7	16.4	-2.72
Terry Rozier	38	39	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.35	-16	24	-40	13.9	13.5	0.37	13.3	16.6	-3.30
Jaylen Brown	44	43	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.33	-17	25	-42	14.1	13.3	0.76	12.9	17.1	-4.19
Aron Baynes	32	34	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.41	-22	30	-52	14.1	13.5	0.63	12.9	16.5	-3.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.68,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.74,0.69,0.78,0.73,0.82,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.94,0.91,0.89,0.97,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 108, BOS 126	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.68,0.8,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.88,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
LAC 98, UTA 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.63,0.69,0.75,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
GSW 78, PHX 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.59,0.67,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.73,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%